Preventing a Second U.S. Civil War

For many years in my late teens and early 20’s I used to joke I was a California Nationalist. This was amusing when I met people from other states, as we are all proud of the state from which we came. I was part of the California State Society, would quote the Economist when saying California is the most democratic country in the world second to Switzerland, and would laugh at the idea of the world’s 7th largest economy going it’s own way. I am no longer making that joke. I am not a California Nationalist. Nor would I ever want to see the United States break apart. I am an American first.


An ancient Chinese novel speaking of  a period of political instability begins with the words “Empires wax and wane; states cleave asunder and coalesce” (Romance of The Three Kingdoms). The United States is an empire, and has been since the beginning of The 20th Century’s War, which started with the Spanish-American War. Are we seeing our country cleave asunder? My argument is no, but there are many in our country who seem to be advocating just that, at the same time they are hugging the flag and claiming to be The true patriots.


Court records from the Special Council Investigation into Russian Influence in the 2016 Election reveal a relatively inexpensive, yet very successful, foreign influence campaign operating in The United States. For less than $50 million Russian operators were able to incite nascent animosities among Americans, instilling a sense of “Us against Them” on both sides of the political aisle in an effort to sow discord and diminish the vote. Components of this campaign were advocacy of state nationalism. One example was pushing for California to declare independence from the United States. The Russian agents who ran this campaign first came to the U.S., talked with Americans, learned what divides us, then drove wedges into those divides in an attempt to cleave the country. Their success is reflected in pictures from some political rallies where supporters of one political party wear T-shirts claiming they’d rather be Russian than of the other political party.


This division is increased when elected office holders share social media speaking of (and sometimes supporting the idea of) violence against those who disagree, or a second U.S. Civil War. With so much talk in this direction, particularly by those on the extreme, it’s easy to dismiss such verbiage as letting off steam, the rants of lunatics, or the last gasps of a lost philosophy. My career has been focused on preventing the avoidable catastrophe, preparing for the unavoidable, and planning the response for those we experience. I am writing this piece to achieve the first - prevent the avoidable catastrophe. I am not claiming the United States will have a second Civil War, but I want to do everything in my power to ensure it never does. I will start by preparing Americans for what a second Civil War could look like. This is not a prediction, just my understanding of the political, economic, social, and military dynamic in the country. If you love The United States then please read on. This could save our country, our way of living, and perhaps your life.


Snapshot of a Second Civil War


Many who call for a second Civil War in the United States use images such as this showing Red States vs. Blue States. This completely misses how the divisions in our country break out. In every state which tends to vote for one political party over the other there exist pockets of people who disagree with that direction. In the states where things are relatively even (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Arizona, etc.) both political parties are well represented.


A second Civil War would not be state on state, it would be urban versus rural, with the suburbs caught in the middle. Such a distribution of disagreement and armed struggle would not provide neat lines of battle, fronts on which troops could deploy, or most importantly, safe areas away from the conflict. Instead, such a war would look more like what we witnessed in Yugoslavia during the 1990s, with sieges of urban areas, rural enclaves cut off from each other and the outside world, and no way out for civilians trapped within either. This type of warfare would be prevalent across the country, from the East Coast to the West, with enclaves of potential temporary stability in-between. Refugees would have little option of where to go, whether North to Canada, South to Mexico, or hunker down and hope for the best where they are, assuming Canada and Mexico keep their borders open to dis-U.S. refugees.

I won’t speak of the horror for the individual in this kind of conflict. Anyone interested can simply read up on recent civil wars in Syria, Yemen, the Former Yugoslavia, and other regions of the world. What I will say is, the American way of life would be destroyed for a long-time. Many would die. Almost all would suffer catastrophe in some form. It’s likely no family in the country would be untouched in a negative way by such a conflict.


Preventing A Civil War


Therefore, it’s in the interest of every American, no matter political party, view of the current political environment, economic status, or any other division among us, to prevent such a catastrophe. Dismissal of the idea of such an event is living in denial, and only brings its likelihood forward. Instead, we all need to face the reality that talk of a Civil War is the first step toward having one. So, the first step toward stopping one is to talk back. Share the experience of civil wars in other places, and ask the speaker, “Do you want that here?” Push back against those advocating this, joking about it, or simply hinting at it. It’s never too early to say “No, not in America!”


Beyond talking back, push for The Center in political situations. Rather than electing extreme candidates on either end of the spectrum, support central figures who want to bring people together, build up the community, rather than tear anyone down. Look for those who develop collaborative groups, work together to solve community problems, and run in to help when any one of us is suffering. Avoid those who attack. Take power away from those who divide. Encourage friends, family, relatives, those at work, those in your community, and those you don’t even know, to do the same.


Please consider what a Civil War would mean to you, your community, and our country. Then, act accordingly.


One Final Note


Throughout The 20th Century’s War, and even in the United States Civil War, those who start wars are usually the ones who lose. Anyone considering starting something, please keep that in mind. Is it worth it? What is gained? Hopefully, on a rational level, you can see there are other ways to solve the problems you wish to solve. Let’s work that out in a non-violent way. It will require us to negotiate, to give a little, and to find resolution. That’s hard, but it’s a lot better than the alternative. My e-mail box is always open for a conversation. I welcome the opportunity to work with anyone to keep a potential catastrophe from becoming a reality.


ReForming The Center

On June 23, 2016 the United Kingdom held a vote on either to stay or leave the European Union (EU). Called Brexit this vote cast the fringes against the Center of the country, with the fringes winning by a mere 2% points with the help of multiple mistruths and the support of Russian influence operations. Today the process that vote began is in shambles, with the UK girding for a hard Brexit, preparing to fall out of the EU without any agreement in place on what happens next. This vote was the prelude to the election of extreme candidates across much of the world, from the United States to Brazil, and beyond.

This week, though, we’ve seen the first signs of moves away from the extremes. Members of both the Labor and Tory Parties left each to form a group calling itself “The Independents”. These are the seeds of what will be a movement away from the established parties to a central position within UK politics. They are also the harbingers of what’s to come in countries across the world where extremists took power.

As with all movement, all revolutions, all state-sponsored influence operations, there is a move in the opposite direction as well. One always precedes the other. We are now beginning to see that movement take shape in the UK. We may witness it transform the United States 2020 Presidential Election process as well. Where else will this movement begin to form? Where will it coalesce? Where will it fail? Where will it prevail? It’s too early to know the answers to these questions. What we do know, though, is the movement toward The Center has begun.

A key question worth asking is:

  • How do I support this movement to The Center?

Advocate for The Center. When you are in a conversation where someone starts pushing an extreme position, push back with a Central point. Never surrender The Center. As long as it’s held, built upon, and strengthened, it will endure.

Be an extreme Centrists. It’s the only way to save our democracies, our societies, our children’s lives, and honor all who gave their lives in The 20th Century’s Wars.

Getting Back to Center

Last week I wrote a piece on the value of the Center, you can read it here. This week I’d like to expand on that missive with a strategy on how to bring systems back to Center. So much ink is often spilled on the negative attributes of moving toward extremes. You can read my writings on The 20th Century’s War here to see the negative consequences of the extremes. I’ve found little thought, though, on how to bring systems back to Center. Here are my thoughts on the subject.

Whether is is a political system, an engine, or any other entity which requires the movement of many parts to work effectively, extremes lead to failure. Working within central parameters is where the most effective overall activity takes place. Yet, often we want a little extra out of the system, we push a little more gas to the engine, we hype up the messaging against a political opponent to score an electoral victory, or we juice the system in some way to gain some short-term advantage. In the long-term, though, this method destroys the system, requiring replacement. When it comes to drag racing cars that’s an expensive proposition. When it comes to the political dynamics within a country, or the relationship between countries, it’s often paid for in lives, property, and future prosperity, all on the human level.

Therefore, how do we take a system which is moving toward the extremes, juiced with short-term explosives, and bring it back to the Center? The Center is not nearly as appealing as the explosive statements about an opposing tribe. The Center is often run by bureaucrats, not exciting television personalities constantly throwing entertainment and distraction our way. The Center is where you want nothing big to happen, rather than the place where every day a dramatic new event could shift the political or geopolitical winds in a massive new way. The Center is where prosperity resides, where the future of our children offers a path to fruition, where we as people need to strive to be.

To move away from the extremes, we need to use the same tools the extremes use to appeal to us. We need to draw attention to the amygdala within the brain. We need to address base emotions. We need to appeal to not only the thinking brain of the cerebral cortex, but the lizard brain as well. How can the Center do that? It’s not exciting!

Yes, it is!

What is more exciting to you? Some new twist and turn of a government shutdown, or making sure your child is not killed in a second Civil War?

What is more exciting to you? Trumped up rhetoric about caravans of refugees fleeing persecution and violence in their homes, or having that persecution and violence infecting your home?

What is more important to you? Fear mongering about someone maybe someday making it hard for you to buy a gun, or knowing your child is safe at school from some person who found easy access to an arsenal of firearms?

When looked at in this way, we can see the Center is where the excitement is. The Center is where the future offers a path forward. The Center is the way.

When politicians parties, or politicians themselves, get on their soap boxes about whatever they believe will excite their supporters, they should be moving those supporters toward the Center. Whenever you listen to a politician speak, you should be moving that person toward the Center. Whenever the media reports on a politician’s diatribe, it should be reported to the Center.

Otherwise, just as the drag racer engine needs to be replaced after a short time throwing nitro into it, the political system will require replacement, which historically has never been a peaceful or painless process. The Center is where humanity is most human, and thus should be where we insist our political and social systems reside.

Let’s all excite others about the power of the Center. It’s the only place in which we may find safety, security, prosperity, and a future for ourselves, our children, our communities, our nation, and our world.