Lizards Are Bad At Foreign Policy

Humans are great decision makers when they give themselves time to make decisions. The human mind is an incredible achievement of evolutionary progress.  Atop a limbic brain that focuses on immediate responses to danger sits a frontal cortex that has the ability to process information over time, see patterns, and compare alternatives for future opportunities.  The first part of the brain is the lizard mind, literally stemming from the origins of the human species millennia ago, before we developed the capacity for higher thought.  The frontal cortex that is built atop that lizard mind, is what allows for the development of societies, relationships, the latest IPhone as well as Beethoven’s 7th Symphony and Metallica’s Nothing Else Matters. So why is it that when dramatic events take place, we humans with highly developed capacities for strategic thought, more often than not react with Lizard mind? Simple, it’s the first to the party.

The Lizard Mind is the fastest reactive portion of our brain.  It’s able to act before we can think about action.  This mind is the one that controls the Fight or Flight function of our existence. It responds by releasing endorphins such as adrenaline and cortisol: speeding up the pumping of the heart, shutting down non-essential functions of the body, and streamlining our systems for the highest energy output over short spurts attainable.  It’s an amazing and remarkable system solely designed for survival.  It’s fast, powerful, and takes no thought on our part to operate. 

Such a brain was useful back when the early mammal had to run from predators.  Those that did not run did not exist for long.  Fight or Flight saved us, and thus was evolutionarily kept because it allowed people to adapt and survive. Today, though, we no longer have to fear predators.  There are a small number of humans who may cause us harm, but these pale in comparison with the predators who hunted us in the past. Despite this amazing luck of overcoming our natural predators, we still possess the Lizard Mind.  We will probably continue to for some time to come.

Yet, the Lizard Mind is a horrible tool if you want to do anything that lasts longer than a few minutes. There is no capacity for fore-thought, no ability to recognize complex patterns, and the human body cannot stay on the chemicals released for long without dire consequences.  If a person is fighting or in-flight for too long, the body begins to breakdown, systems fail, and the person will die. Therefore, the Cerebral Cortex, the frontal lobe, is essential for anything requiring thought, planning, and continuing existence.  

Anyone who operates from fear is working solely in the realm of the Lizard Mind. Fear drives survival from predators, but it does not make good policy or enable sustainability over time.  Fear drives quick, hard, resource draining responses.  Fear of terrorism over the past 15 years has driven this country’s foreign policy into multiple cul-de-sacs of war from which we are still attempting to find paths out.  Fear drove the loss of lives for thousands of American and allied service members, the spending of immense national treasure, and the loss of focus on existential threats for the sake of focusing on fighting an idea.  Yet, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, what have we achieved?  Have we reduced Terrorism?  NO!  Have we made either country safe for Democracy? NO! Have we stemmed the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction? NO!

Fear drove us to knee-jerk (literally) action, whereas taking time to have thought through policy would have guided us on a very different path to address the threat of terrorism.  Only through realizing that a threat from an idea cannot be stopped unless everyone with that idea is killed, can we realize that wars will never stop terrorism. Terrorism stems from something far more complex (the Cerebral Cortex) than simply bombing for the sake of death or attrition (the Lizard Mind).

Looking beyond Terrorism, the Lizard Mind will also be a crutch as we deal with the real existential threats we face.  Peer-to-peer competitor conflict with countries like Russia or China will not be won if we rely solely on Lizard Mind reactions to provocations these countries incite.  Resolving the changing nature of our planet’s habitat, addressing planet killing asteroids, and dangerous new diseases will not be achieved if we act from fear.

Even more damaging to our long-term strategic planning is the fact that new technologies have enabled almost instant global information transmission and the rapid deployment of military capacities for destruction.  Due to this ability to see things instantly, and take actions almost as quick, we now have the capacity to act from first response, rather than being required to take time to commit our first action based off of information obtained about inciting events. It’s easy to look into the past to see that the lack of instant communication and deployment may have helped us not overreact, where the ability to take immediate action may have led us astray.

In 1898 when the Battleship Main exploded in Havana, Cuba the United States and Spain had already had a tense relationship for years.  The fear and anger incited by that mysterious event (never factually attributed to Spain) propelled the United States into a war in which we became an imperial power by taking the remnants of Spain’s once large empire.  Yet, in that war it took the United States almost three months to take the initial military action of attacking the Spanish fleet in Manila, Philippines.  The speed at which technology slowed the war allowed for some deliberation, but communication was so slow as well that orders were given in Washington far before action took place on the battlefield.  This war led to an occupation of the Philippines and Cuba, both of which resisted U.S. occupation.  A war of liberation eventually ended with forced occupation and pacification of the two countries we entered the war to help.

In 1917, after years of attempting to compel Germany to refrain from Unrestricted Submarine Warfare, the United States was terrified by the Zimmerman Telegram, which was an initiative by Germany to encourage Mexico to declare war on the United States.  This infuriated many Americans, and became a key justification for U.S. entry into World War I.  The U.S. took a long time to recruit, train, and deploy its forces in that war, eventually helping turn the tide in favor of the Allies.  The repercussions of that war, and its ensuing short period of peace were the result of fear and greed, rather than strategic planning on the part of the victors, leading to World War II.

The attack on Pearl Harbor terrified the people of the United States, and left the military feeling particularly circumspect.  The military decisions made in response to the attack were quick.  Some of them were strategically thought out: Our first offensive action against Japan would not take place until months later.  Some of them were against those we could do something to right away: The United States interned hundreds of thousands of Japanese Americans based off of fear that they may be a 5th Column in the U.S.  The thought out actions eventually led to the destruction of the Japanese Empire.  The fear-based reactive actions led to a generation of Japanese Americans losing their belongings and livelihoods followed by an eventual public apology and some monetary compensation by the U.S. Government. Fear cost us. Strategic thought projected us to victory.

When the North Koreans crossed the 38th Parallel into South Korea on June 25, 1950 the United States was wholly unprepared for war.  Our initial reaction was to go to the United Nations to seek approval for action.  That approval was given, and we deployed with what we had available.  Not a lot of time for planning was available, so our initial response was faulty, leading to significant loss.  When we had time to plan, prepare, and deploy, our forces conducted a brilliant campaign.  The military then went beyond the political objectives outlined, compelling the Chinese to become involved.  Again, our reaction was fear and shock, leading to more disastrous losses. We never fully recovered from those losses. The war became a stalemate in which we are still officially a combatant.

Two events, two days apart, led to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution which began in earnest the U.S. military deployments to Vietnam.  This set of events was a minor incident that caused no U.S. military response, and then a technical malfunction on the USS Maddox, which led to the passage of the resolution.  False radar blips on the Maddox led its command to believe the ship was under intense attack, but the attack never really happened.  Congress was outraged, and the Resolution, which had been waiting for some time for consideration by Congress, passed quickly.  The U.S. went to War in Vietnam over an event that never occurred because we were preparing for war already and were fearful. As we know, that war did not turn out well for us.

Gulf War - In the first Iraq War (1990-1991) the time between Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the U.S. led coalition’s first act of war in response was almost 5 months, during which time a lot of planning was conducted and a coalition built to conduct a relatively simple action: removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait.  We deployed troops to the region in the five months, but only Special Forces missions were conducted against Iraq during that time.  Preparation was key. Planning well utilized. The Coalition was victorious; achieving its mission objectives.

There is an antidote to conducting a foreign and security policy with the Lizard Mind: Build resilience and flexibility into the international security apparatus of the country and into the training programs for those going into this field.  The founders of the country intended for this when they designed the U.S. Senate to be The World’s Greatest Deliberative Body; half of the equation in the process for a U.S. Declaration of War.  In this way, they hoped we would not go to war based on the whims of individuals, small groups, or a blood-thirsty public, but rather only based on the long-term debated national security interests of the country.  As we can see from the case examples above, things have not always worked out this way; especially in the most recent past when Declarations of War were not even issued.  Therefore, we have to rethink what should be required and built into our system of government before our nation gets into the next war.

-          First, within the government, a new system that forces deliberation upon an act of war should be established and written into the Constitution.   

-          Second, within the institutions that already exist (National Security Advisors, Departments of Defense, State, etc.) offices should be established that have the authority to reflect on the repercussions of actions before actions are taken.  These repercussions need to be built into any decision-making process leading up to a decision to use military force. 

-          Third, at the schools where future leaders are trained, curriculum on the decision making of going to war, the results and aftermath of war, the human and financial burden of war, as well as planning for war and its potential outcomes should be established and integrated with all international affairs, foreign and security policy study programs.

-          Finally, more study should be conducted on the decision making processes of past Politicians, Patriots, and Statesmen to understand how successful decisions were made as compared to those that led to failure in terms of acts of war.  I would posit the politicians and the patriots were far less successful than the Statesmen, but I’ll let the empirical research speak for itself.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt had it right when he claimed that “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  The human mind can overcome fear with contemplation, knowledge, and data.  The human mind can see beyond fear to possibilities.  The human mind can create answers to problems that once caused fear.  The human mind is resilient, flexible, and strategic: capable of so much more than a Lizard Mind can muster.   

On this Memorial Day let us honor those who served us in the past and who will serve us in the future by declaring our intent to not waste their lives and livelihoods on Lizard Mind based wars. Instead, we will dedicate ourselves to thinking through our actions, using force sparingly and with great care only on what really will make a positive long-term strategic difference to the world in which we live. We will most honor the War Fighter if we only ask him or her to fight when it matters, not just because something spooked us. We’re better than that. Our Service Members deserve better than that!

Happy Memorial Day

70 Years Since Victory

70 years ago, May 8, 1945, the War in Europe ended in Allied victory.  With VE (Victory Europe) day arrived the end of the 3rd Reich, Hitler’s Germany. Yet, the drive for territorial aggrandizement, totalitarianism, fascism, and hatred did not end with the German surrender. The world today still suffers from these fear-based attempts to control and destroy the lives of our neighbors. There is hope, though, that we can overcome fear to make a world our grandparents and great-grandparents fought for so long ago.

After Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 he made two proclamations:

-          The Third Reich will last for 1000 years.

-          Given 10 years, no one will recognize Germany.

He was completely wrong on the first account.

He was right on the second, but for the wrong reason.

When Hitler came to power Germany was the cultural as well as economic center of Europe.  Within the 10 years that Hitler maintained power in Germany the country was torn from within and blasted from without.  Hitler destroyed what was Germany, what was Europe, and much of what were the institutions that ran the Western world up to that point. 

Coming to power through the greed, duplicity, conniving, and barbarous acts of thugs, want-to-bees, former heroes, and industrialists who thought they could control him, Hitler and his gang of misfits dominated Europe’s cultural center through fear, unleashing death and destruction across the face of the world, enslaving and murdering tens of millions in the horror of war and holocaust.

Let us remember how easy it is to be tempted by hate, how fear can motivate masses to atrocity, and how expensive in life and treasure it is to retrieve remnants of civilization from the fiery hell of war.

As we survey the world on May 8, 2015 we can see fear motivating support for right-wing politicians across Europe, and even across the Atlantic in the United States.  We see fear maintaining the government within Russia, and dominating the elections in Israel.  We see fear driving the actions of dictators and theocrats across the Middle East.  Fear is a powerful weapon used by those wishing to achieve and clutch power.  Fear addresses a base instinct in people to respond.  Yet, fear is not policy.  Fear does not subscribe to the long-arch of morality toward justice.  Fear based politics will never achieve a positive outcome for the people who are driven to be fearful.

May we look across the world, and share with our neighbors a sense of hope.  A sense of shared investment in this world, its peace, and the lives we can build by working together toward common aims. 

We are a fragile species, currently trapped on a small rock floating through space.  Fear will not get us off this rock.  Fear will not allow us to continue our existence beyond the life of the Earth.  Hope, realization that we’re all in this together, working together, and looking toward a shared future is what will save humanity.

On this day to remember the great sacrifice needed to end the War in Europe in 1945 let’s take a moment to remember how it was achieved.  Teamwork on the part of 51 countries, brought down the fear dominated world of Hitler’s Germany.  Imagine what the teamwork of 51 countries can do today to save humanity and propel our species toward a future lasting far more than 1000 years. 

Have a wonderful VE day!

 

Jeremy

 

 

Top 3 Reasons The World Wars Matter to You

For many people today the fact that it’s the centennial of the First World War seems quant.  That war was 100 years ago, how is it relevant to me now, in my life?  The same can be said of the Second World War, which ended over 69 years ago (depending on what you take for the end).  That is several generations removed from me.  Most of the remaining participants are great-grand parents who rarely talk about it.  Why should I care? 

Here’s the top three reasons why everyone today, no matter where you live, what you do, or what you believe should consider the relevance of the World Wars to your life.

3. They are not over yet.

What do I mean that they are not over yet?  Peace treaties were signed, atomic bombs were dropped, countries were literally moved and others were simply created out of nothing; how could it not be over? 

Actually, multiple ways:

1.       If you look around the world at the potential areas of conflict today you see the unfinished business of both wars festering as wounds intent on spoiling the peaceful relation between the countries.  Here’s a short list of conflict flash-points stemming from The World Wars:

{C}a.       North Korea/South Korea Divide

{C}b.      China/Taiwan

{C}c.       China and the South China Sea

{C}d.      Japan and China in the East China Sea

{C}e.      The Russian invasion of the Ukraine

{C}f.        The civil wars taking place throughout the Middle East and North Africa

{C}g.       The soon-to-be short-lived independence of the countries of Central Asia

{C}h.      Russia’s enclave of Kaliningrad

{C}i.         Unsettled and unsettling Russians in the Baltic States

{C}j.        Many more that I don’t have time to list. . .

 

2.       The residue of war still kills.  Unexploded bombs from The World Wars still litter the countryside, and even the cities, of countries the world over.   Regular reports of farmers, children, and others finding unexploded ordinance populate newspapers on a regular basis.  Just because a peace treaty is signed does not mean the killing stops.  Removing these unexploded bombs, landmines, and other explosives from war ravaged regions is a never-ending effort consuming millions of dollars, and several hundred lives every year.

2. The world we live in today stems directly from their technological advances.

Every piece of technology we use today can trace its roots back to at least The World Wars.  From remote control, cell phones, computers, the internet, jets, rockets, heart stents, penicillin, and other medical breakthroughs devised in the 20th and 21st century, everything we use comes from research conducted to fight and win The World Wars, or the wars that followed because of them.  Look around your desk, your house, your car, or even your body.  From Nylon to Teflon to Facebook and beyond, The World Wars led to the life you live today.

1. It’s not just our children who will fight and die in the next one.

Speaking of your life today; chances are that if you live in the countries of Western Europe or North America you’ve got it pretty good.  You have access to clean water, food, healthcare, and the security in knowing that you are pretty safe as you go through your day.  You’re probably most concerned with saving for college or retirement, getting the kids to school on-time, and where to go to dinner.

That sense of safety and comfort is temporary.  Not just for your children who will be called upon to fight the next World War, which they will.  But also for you.  The expansion of war from only injuring/killing those on the battlefield to the involvement and harm of everyone wherever they are located began in earnest in World War I, grew exponentially in World War II, and when the next great war comes, will require and consume civilians on a far greater scale than military personnel.  Civilians will be the primary target after an initial military on military engagement.  Our comfortable lives will be disrupted, possibly ended, even though we will probably be too old to don a military uniform and thousands of miles away from the conflict zone. 

Our children will be the ones in the 21st century equivalent of trenches.  We, the civilians, will per capita, will be the ones most threatened by enemy actions, whether kinetic, cyber, or some other form not yet imagined.

What can I do?

We can do our best to prevent the next war by:

1.       Holding our leadership accountable for their actions. 

2.       Think rationally, rather than act on fear, about international conflicts and their resolution. 

3.       Support and encourage leaders who believe in non-violent resolution to problems. 

4.       Support and maintain a strong deterrent military, while adhering to President Eisenhower’s warnings about an already leviathan military-industrial complex.

5.       Work with international partners to empower citizens across the world with the will and ability to non-violently remove corrupt and militaristic regimes from power.

6.       Support democratic movements the world over, from Hong Kong to Russia and many areas in-between or far from those.

7.       Get and stay engaged with the world, what’s happening in it, and what it means to you personally.