Lizards are bad at Foreign Policy

 

Humans are great decision makers when they give themselves time to make decisions. The human mind is an incredible achievement of evolutionary progress.  Atop a limbic brain which focuses on immediate responses to danger sits a frontal cortex empowered to process information over time, see patterns, and compare alternatives for future opportunities.  The first part of the brain is the lizard mind, literally stemming from the origins of the human species millennia ago, before we developed the capacity for higher thought.  The frontal cortex - built atop that lizard mind - is what allows for the development of societies, relationships, the latest IPhone as well as Beethoven’s 7th Symphony and Metallica’s Nothing Else Matters. So why is it when dramatic events take place, we humans with highly developed capacities for strategic thought, more often than not, react with Lizard mind? Simple, it’s the first to the party.

The Lizard Mind is the fastest reactive portion of our brain.  It’s able to act before we can think about action.  This mind is the one controlling the Fight or Flight function of our existence. It responds by releasing endorphins such as adrenaline and cortisol: speeding up the pumping of the heart, shutting down non-essential functions of the body, and streamlining our systems for the highest energy output over short spurts attainable.  It’s an amazing and remarkable system solely designed for survival.  It’s fast, powerful, and takes no thought on our part to operate. 

Such a brain was useful back when the early mammal had to run from predators.  Those who did not run did not exist for long.  Fight or Flight saved us, and thus was evolutionarily kept because it allowed people to adapt and survive. Today, though, we no longer have to fear most predators.  There are a small number of humans who may cause us harm, but these pale in comparison with the predators who hunted us in the past. Despite this amazing luck of overcoming our natural predators, we still possess the Lizard Mind.  We will probably continue to for some time to come.

Yet, the Lizard Mind is a horrible tool if you want to do anything that lasts longer than a few minutes. There is no capacity for fore-thought, no ability to recognize complex patterns, and the human body cannot stay on the chemicals released for long without dire consequences.  If a person is fighting or in-flight for too long, the body begins to breakdown, systems fail, and the person will die. Therefore, the Cerebral Cortex, the frontal lobe, is essential for anything requiring thought, planning, and continuing existence.  

Anyone who operates from fear is working solely in the realm of the Lizard Mind. Fear drives survival from predators, but it does not make good policy or enable sustainability over time.  Fear drives quick, hard, resource draining responses.  Fear of terrorism over the past 17 years has driven this country’s foreign policy into multiple cul-de-sacs of war from which we are still attempting to find paths out.  Fear drove the loss of lives for thousands of American and allied service members, the spending of immense national treasure, and the loss of focus on existential threats for the sake of focusing on fighting an idea.  Yet, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, what have we achieved?  Have we reduced Terrorism?  NO!  Have we made either country safe for Democracy? NO! Have we stemmed the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction? NO!

Fear is driving us toward war with North Korea. Fear over what North Korean missiles could do to the Continental United States. Rational minds, understanding intent and the motivation of authoritarian leaders, would better serve the interests of our country, and the world, than this fear-based response from our current leadership.

Fear drove us to knee-jerk (literally) action, whereas taking time to have thought through policy would have guided us on a very different path to address the threat of terrorism.  Only through realizing that a threat from an idea cannot be stopped unless everyone with that idea is killed, can we realize that wars will never stop terrorism. Terrorism stems from something far more complex (the Cerebral Cortex) than simply bombing for the sake of death or attrition (the Lizard Mind).

Looking beyond Terrorism, the Lizard Mind will also be a crutch as we deal with the real existential threats we face.  Peer-to-peer competitor conflict with countries like Russia or China will not be won if we rely solely on Lizard Mind reactions to provocations these countries incite.  Resolving the changing nature of our planet’s habitat, addressing planet killing asteroids, and dangerous new diseases will not be achieved if we act from fear.

Even more damaging to our long-term strategic planning is the fact that new technologies have enabled almost instant global information transmission and the rapid deployment of military capacities for destruction.  Due to this ability to see things instantly, and take actions almost as quick, we now have the capacity to act from first response, rather than being required to take time to commit our first action based off of information obtained about inciting events. It’s easy to look into the past to see that the lack of instant communication and deployment may have helped us not overreact, where the ability to take immediate action may have led us astray.

In 1898 when the Battleship Main exploded in Havana, Cuba the United States and Spain had already had a tense relationship for years.  The fear and anger incited by that mysterious event (never factually attributed to Spain) propelled the United States into a war in which we became an imperial power by taking the remnants of Spain’s once large empire.  Yet, in that war it took the United States almost three months to take the initial military action of attacking the Spanish fleet in Manila, Philippines.  The speed at which technology slowed the war allowed for some deliberation, but communication was so slow as well that orders were given in Washington far before action took place on the battlefield.  This war led to an occupation of the Philippines and Cuba, both of which resisted U.S. occupation.  A war of liberation eventually ended with forced occupation and pacification of the two countries we entered the war to help.

In 1917, after years of attempting to compel Germany to refrain from Unrestricted Submarine Warfare, the United States was terrified by the Zimmerman Telegram, which was an initiative by Germany to encourage Mexico to declare war on the United States.  This infuriated many Americans, and became a key justification for U.S. entry into World War I.  The U.S. took a long time to recruit, train, and deploy its forces in that war, eventually helping turn the tide in favor of the Allies.  The repercussions of that war, and its ensuing short period of peace were the result of fear and greed, rather than strategic planning on the part of the victors, leading to World War II.

The attack on Pearl Harbor terrified the people of the United States, and left the military feeling particularly circumspect.  The military decisions made in response to the attack were quick.  Some of them were strategically thought out: Our first offensive action against Japan would not take place until months later.  Some of them were against those we could do something to right away: The United States interned hundreds of thousands of Japanese Americans based off of fear that they may be a 5th Column in the U.S.  The thought out actions eventually led to the destruction of the Japanese Empire.  The fear-based reactive actions led to a generation of Japanese Americans losing their belongings and livelihoods followed by an eventual public apology and some monetary compensation by the U.S. Government. Fear cost us. Strategic thought projected us to victory.

When the North Koreans crossed the 38th Parallel into South Korea on June 25, 1950 the United States was wholly unprepared for war.  Our initial reaction was to go to the United Nations to seek approval for action.  That approval was given, and we deployed with what we had available.  Not a lot of time for planning was available, so our initial response was faulty, leading to significant loss.  When we had time to plan, prepare, and deploy, our forces conducted a brilliant campaign.  The military then went beyond the political objectives outlined, compelling the Chinese to become involved.  Again, our reaction was fear and shock, leading to more disastrous losses. We never fully recovered from those losses. The war became a stalemate in which we are still officially a combatant.

Two events, two days apart, led to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution which began in earnest the U.S. military deployments to Vietnam.  This set of events was a minor incident that caused no U.S. military response, and then a technical malfunction on the USS Maddox, which led to the passage of the resolution.  False radar blips on the Maddox led its command to believe the ship was under intense attack, but the attack never really happened.  Congress was outraged, and the Resolution, which had been waiting for some time for consideration by Congress, passed quickly.  The U.S. went to War in Vietnam over an event that never occurred because we were preparing for war already and were fearful. As we know, that war did not turn out well for us.

Gulf War - In the first Iraq War (1990-1991) the time between Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and the U.S. led coalition’s first act of war in response was almost 5 months, during which time a lot of planning was conducted and a coalition built to conduct a relatively simple action: removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait.  We deployed troops to the region in the five months, but only Special Forces missions were conducted against Iraq during that time.  Preparation was key. Planning well utilized. The Coalition was victorious; achieving its mission objectives.

There is an antidote to conducting a foreign and security policy with the Lizard Mind: Build resilience and flexibility into the international security apparatus of the country and into the training programs for those going into this field.  The founders of the country intended for this when they designed the U.S. Senate to be The World’s Greatest Deliberative Body; half of the equation in the process for a U.S. Declaration of War.  In this way, they hoped we would not go to war based on the whims of individuals, small groups, or a blood-thirsty public, but rather only based on the long-term debated national security interests of the country.  As we can see from the case examples above, things have not always worked out this way; especially in the most recent past when Declarations of War were not even issued.  Therefore, we have to rethink what should be required and built into our system of government before our nation gets into the next war.

-          First, within the government, a new system that forces deliberation upon an act of war should be established and written into the Constitution.   

-          Second, within the institutions that already exist (National Security Advisors, Departments of Defense, State, etc.) offices should be established that have the authority to reflect on the repercussions of actions before actions are taken.  These repercussions need to be built into any decision-making process leading up to a decision to use military force. 

-          Third, at the schools where future leaders are trained, curriculum on the decision making of going to war, the results and aftermath of war, the human and financial burden of war, as well as planning for war and its potential outcomes should be established and integrated with all international affairs, foreign and security policy study programs.

-          Finally, more study should be conducted on the decision making processes of past Politicians, Patriots, and Statesmen to understand how successful decisions were made as compared to those that led to failure in terms of acts of war.  I would posit the politicians and the patriots were far less successful than the Statesmen, but I’ll let the empirical research speak for itself.

President Franklin D. Roosevelt had it right when he claimed that “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”  The human mind can overcome fear with contemplation, knowledge, and data.  The human mind can see beyond fear to possibilities.  The human mind can create answers to problems that once caused fear.  The human mind is resilient, flexible, and strategic: capable of so much more than a Lizard Mind can muster.   

On this Memorial Day let us honor those who served us in the past and who will serve us in the future by declaring our intent to not waste their lives and livelihoods on Lizard Mind based wars. Instead, we will dedicate ourselves to thinking through our actions, using force sparingly and with great care only on what really will make a positive long-term strategic difference to the world in which we live. We will most honor the War Fighter if we only ask him or her to fight when it matters, not just because something spooked us. We’re better than that. Our Service Members deserve better than that!

Desert

There he is again, slithering directly behind me.

This soldier won’t leave me alone.

I scurry a little faster, hoping to lose him in the crowded street, but he keeps up, maintaining an uncomfortable distance.

I just want to get home.

His eyes, dark under the pulled down military cap, stare intently at me when I glance back to see if he’s still there.

Seek help from a stranger, that is the only answer.

Reaching out to the first man I see, I plead “Monsieur,can you please help, this soldier is following me.” 

Looking up, surprised from the distractions of his ground-focused attention learned through years of NAZI occupation, the gentleman is a bit startled.

The soldier comes closer.

He’s not keeping his distance any longer.

“What is the problem, madame?” the gentleman says, just as the soldier sidles up to tower over him.

“Move along buddy” the soldier says, “my girlfriend and I are having a lover’s chase, if you know what I mean.”

“This soldier is not my boyfriend” I exclaim with all authority.

The gentleman is dazed, confused, and clearly wants to get somewhere away from this soldier.

Shoving the gentleman on, the soldier turns to me, his back to the other man.

“Look here sweetheart, we’re going to resolve this.” He says as he grabs my hand.

“LET GO OF ME!” I scream.

The gentleman stands there, stunned.

“Come with me Lucille!” the soldier projects loud enough for all to hear.

A crowd begins to gather around. The gentleman is still standing there, not knowing what to do.

“My name is not Lucille. I will not go with you. I don’t know you. Let go of me!” I demand.

Yes, a lot of noise, a crowd, attention. The last things he wants!

The soldier lets go of my hand as he turns to the crowd. 

“Fine, have it your way honey. I’ll see you at home.” He says as a parting blow to my status among the strangers in the crowd.

It worked, I am free of this monster.

“I do not know him.” I plead as the crowd dissipates with knowing expressions.

How dare he besmirch me near my home, this Cretan!

Scurrying home,I turn on several wrong streets to make sure the soldier is not following me.

I can’t have him know where I live.

Finally turning onto my street, I see my building entrance in the distance.

Home, safety, freedom.

Making my way toward the entrance, I look around me.

The soldier is nowhere to be seen.

I walk through the outer gate, entering the front courtyard of the building.

As I approach the front door, I look around again.

I’m not opening this door until I know I’m safe.

No one is around. I am alone.

I reach into my purse, clasping the key to the door in my right hand.

Looking up at the lock, a shadow breaks over mine on the door.

NO!

Swiveling around, I am prepared. The key to the door is locked between my forefinger and my middle finger.

It’s not much, but it would hurt if jabbed in the eye in a quick thrust.

Thrusting my arm, I see whose shadow it is.

“Good evening Monsieur Horbac” I say in a startled voice as I let my hand fall to my waist.

Thank god!

“Allow me to get the door, Madame.” The kindly old gentleman says to me as he reaches up.

How did he surprise me?

We enter the building, Monsieur Horbac heading to the elevator, and me to the stairs.

“Good evening Monsieur Horbac” I offer as I start up the staircase and he enters the open elevator.

I’m almost home.

My right foot just touches the first stair as the door behind the entrance to the staircase closes with a loud slam, and I hear “Hello again Lucille.”

 

 

 


Following the liberation of Paris in August 1944, the fighting units of the Allied armies pushed on through Eastern France toward Germany. Some of the soldiers from these armies decided to make their way back to the City of Lights, rather than fight on the front. For most, this was a chance to get out of the fighting, keep a low profile, and simply sit out the remainder of the war. For others, this was a chance to take advantage of the military uniform to steal, assault, rape and murder without compunction. Paris and other liberated cities were hit by a wave of violence and crime not often discussed after the war. Up to 50,000 American and 100,000 British soldiers deserted their units during World War II. Between June 1944 and April 1945 the US Army investigated over 7,900 cases of criminal activity. Forty-four percent of these were violence, including rape, manslaughter and murder. Eventually, law and order were restored in the liberated cities of Europe, but it took to the end of the war, and the reintroduction of strong civilian police authorities, to make this happen. 

The Deserters: A Hidden History of World War II by Charles Glass was the source of information for this story.
 

The Next World War

Let’s talk about the next war, shall we. This may not be a comfortable topic, or perhaps it’s one you think is a long way away so not worth the conversation now. As a student of history, humanity, and humor, I can tell you with a straight face, we’re now facing the next major war. This will be no Brush-Fire war on the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan, but one in which we’ll be fighting for control of the air, land, and sea in multiple theaters at the same time. It is the kind of war few in the world wish to contemplate until it’s already begun. It’s the kind of war we fought twice in the 20th Century. I can’t say exactly when or where it will begin, but we can talk about how it will happen, possible ways to prevent or limit it, and what it means for all of us. So, please join me as we think through our future, what it will cost, and what we can build if we happen to survive to see the other end of this human tragedy.

First, where we are today. From North Korea, the South China Sea, Iran, NATO-Russia frontier, and maybe even Venezuela based on some recent comments, we may be close to a multi-front catastrophe. We, as a nation, don’t seek out these conflicts, though some high within the administration would like to use them to galvanize support behind an unpopular and fearful President cringing with the ever encroaching approach of the special prosecutor looking into Russian election meddling which brought him to office. Expect the closer that prosecutor gets the more belligerency we’ll see from this administration. Lessons were learned by these folks when they fired a few cruise missiles into Syria back in April: Show some bombs and missiles, and the American people will line up, form up, and fall-in. This administration is counting on that wag-the-dog Pavlovian reaction when they need it most.

NBC had the chance to stop this when he was just a TV show character who grabbed woman’s body parts because he was a star. The Republican Party had the chance to stop this when he was a joke candidate no one took seriously who attacked judges, families of fallen soldiers, and war heroes. The American people had the chance to stop this when he espoused hate-filled propaganda and called it a candidacy for the Presidency of the U.S. Now, it’s up to all of these forces, aligned with the international community of democracies, to prevent a mad-man from literally going down in a blaze of (self-perceived) glory, and taking us all down with him. If we don’t stop him, the world itself, and all within it, will suffer the wrath of his hate-filled dystopian fantasy. Yet, there is hope.

No one knows when this conflagration will begin exactly, but it will be soon. When this war does start, wherever that is, the U.S. may initially look strong in that one theater of battle. We may even resist in two theaters at once, although we walked away from that doctrine more than 15 years ago. If we move to three, four, five, etc. theaters at once, we’ll be overwhelmed, especially without our allies, but that is exactly what our potential opponents would want to see.

This is where the power to stop such a war resides today: with our friends and allies across the world. Do not align with this administration. Do not enable them. Suffer the angry tweet. Suffer the change in trade policy. Suffer the malign barbs from within our political leadership. Stay true to the foundations of democracy, to the ideals of democratic governance, and to the ideas behind the world we built together after World War II. Don’t join this war on the side of this mad-man just because you have an alliance with the U.S. As a Fulbright Fellow who focused my work on NATO-EU relations, and a strong believer in the foundation of Trans-Atlantic Security being the bedrock of global stability, I am calling on our NATO Allies to protect NATO, but not let the U.S. drag the world into another World War. This message also goes out to our allies in Asia and the Pacific. Protect your interests, but don’t get dragged along to suicide by this clearly damaged individual and his enablers.

It’s easy to see NATO rallying against an opportunistic Russia, or Japan and S. Korea working with the U.S. against a nuclear weapon yielding North Korea. Yet, let’s not get into those fights, shall we? NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, other allies please work together, with the U.S. if you can, to prevent those threats from culminating into full-scale war. Remove the hostility and short-sightedness of our Commander in Chief from the equation and the world can probably work something out. Follow him down into the morass and we’ll all have to pay the price for his lack of understanding, inability to ask, and hatred of all who are not succumbing to his will.

If, despite these best efforts, the U.S. starts wars, consider where you stand. You may not feel you have the ability to stand to the side, nor may you want to see the U.S. defeated. I sure don’t, even if I don’t agree with the war. So, then think of how you’d engage without aligning with the aggressor. Think of how you’d fight if you were a co-belligerent rather than an alliance partner. Think of how you’d engage if a pretext for war was created by the U.S., but it didn’t actually fire the first shot. That is the most likely scenario, at least for the first in the chain of conflicts which will coalesce to form this new war.

Now, let’s come to the home front, a term introduced during the First World War when civilians became a key contributing factor in the outcome of that conflict. Our soldiers and (disproportionally huge numbers of civilians) will die from our having failed to prevent the rise to power of this mad-man and his sycophants, some of whom hope and want to bring about this war, having expressed such desires in the past. A nuclear exchange with North Korea, let alone China or Russia would be devastating to the United States, and any allies who join us in these conflicts. Yet, there is hope.

On the Home Front we can belatedly, although hopefully still in-time to save ourselves from any more grief, disable this mad-man from sending us down this path. We have the 25th Amendment which empowers those under the President to remove him from office. We have the process of Impeachment which, although slower, can have the same result. This path is difficult though, as the scared little boy inhabiting the body of the man titled President will strike out when he senses himself at risk and cornered. None-the-less, we cannot keep enabling him. We must prevent this disaster in whatever legal means are available to do so.

Those waffling on this idea because they would not want to see Mike Pence assume to role of Commander and Chief, I get you, but I respectfully wish to tell you to “Get off your butt!” Pence may disagree with almost everything for which I stand as a compassionate person who believes in the power of democracy to better the lives of all citizens, but I’d prefer him to the clearly disturbed individual inhabiting the oval office as I write this. Yes, he’d enact policies I’d disagree with. Yet, I’d be alive to disagree with them, fight him, over-turn them after the next election, and hopefully start rebuilding that democracy again.

If we cannot cut off this war before it starts, we then have to consider what to do once it’s over. No one knows what the world would look like after the end of such a calamitous human catastrophe. No one in July 1914 could have imagined what the world would look like in November 1918. No one in August 1939 could have imagined what the world would look like in August 1945. Yet, there is hope. Even after countless military and civilian deaths, humanity will endure. Those left will do what they can to rebuild and work together to prevent another such disaster in the future, strengthening the bonds which link like-minded nations together for the common goals of all. All of this depends on who survives. If those who led us into this human blood-bath survive then there is little hope for growth and learning from what occurred. If those who believe in cooperation, democracy, and the rule of law survive, we could again align as we did after World War II to build a better world. Therefore, plan how you’ll survive such a war. Where can you go? What can you do to secure your family, your values, and those of the country you love? How can we work together as communities to ensure everyone is cared for, safe, and able to contribute to the future we all hold dear. There is, and always will be, hope.

We will face this war, unless we can prevent it now. If we face this war alone we will lose. Whether we win or lose, many will die and suffer from what could have been avoided. None-the-less, there is hope all along the path through this difficult time. We can plan for how we’ll work to prevent, protect, then mitigate, if we have to, such human caused violence. Then, maybe, the lessons of history will compel us toward Peace.

Peace Please!

 

Jeremy Strozer

 

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THREADS OF THE WAR, VOLUME IV.