This is Europe's time to rise to its potential, meeting the demands the world has for what Europe has to offer. This rise will require a change of perspective about what Europe is, what is important to the people of Europe, and what role Europe has in the world. Europe is up to this change, but it will not be easy, cheap, or pleasant for the people of the countries of The European Union (EU), its aspirants, or the United Kingdom. Together they have the opportunity and responsibility to help ensure peace and security. Otherwise, the world will slip farther into authoritarian led wars. It is up to the people of Europe which path we shall take.
Trapped between a revanchist fascist Russia, an ever more belligerent China facing economic headwinds, and an unreliable United States, Europe must become what it has every capacity to be: a foreign and security power in-line with its economic strength. To achieve such an outcome, Europe needs to move beyond consensus on critical issues, beyond the varying definitions of undefendable neutrality in some countries, and beyond utter reliance on the United States for security. This means creating a robust and sustainable European contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), social cohesion within European states, a defense industrial base commensurate with Europe’s size and strength, and a foreign policy apparatus able to represent Europe’s interests around the world. No matter the results of the United States election, a Europe which achieves these outcomes will be a potent force for good in the world, reinforcing NATO, strengthening the EU, providing hope and a future for Ukraine, and proving there is a future for the Western Liberal Democratic Order.
Making such changes, and meeting such demands, will be a departure from business as usual for Europe. None-the-less, the world is not usual. The time for quotidian European interactions is past. The threats to Europe are real. The time has come to act beyond the comfort level of any one country to protect the interests of not only Europe, but the world with which it interacts economically, politically, militarily, and diplomatically. Jean Monnet and Margaret Thatcher would recognize the demands of this time, coming together to create a Europe whole, free, and strong enough to protect its interests in the world in league with allies if it has them or alone if it must.
Demand for Europe
As the world commemorates the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine and goes into the third month of the year of elections, in which who runs the United States in the future will be determined, Europe finds itself surrounded by uncertainty. The rise of authoritarian and wannabe authoritarians within the European Union has weakened it internally while such figures have created conflict and uncertainty worldwide.
For more than 70 years Europe and the United States have been the key bulwarks of Western Liberal Democracy. Within Europe, and particularly in the United States, the walls of that bulwark have been undermined by authoritarian regimes and those who wish to create them. From Hungary, Slovakia and potentially Netherlands, Italy, France, and others within the EU, to Turkey as a questionable NATO ally, Europe is currently struggling to traverse the fractured foundation of the rule of law and unity. This as Russia demonstrated its willingness to conduct wars of imperial aggression is a recipe for instability and potential future subjugation by dictators.
The world needs a united Europe, pushing back against aggression, standing for democracy, and defending the rule of law both internally, and globally. This would be best achieved in collaboration with international partners to include the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand among others, no matter what combination of these states will be democratic after this year.
Supply by Europe
Collectively, Europe has the largest economy, potential military, industrial base, and diplomatic representation in the world. At present these resources are diffused across independent states within and outside the EU. Add to the EU the countries of The United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro and you find over 20% of the world’s economy represented. No other country has such a capacity. Compare this to China at around 18%, the United States at 13% and Russia at 3%.[1] Europe is huge.
If these resources and capabilities were harnessed toward implementing a unified strategy no country in the world could stand alone against a unified Europe. This is the reason Russia has worked so hard to undermine the European Union, funding political movements across the Union to weaken its institutions and sap its political will. Rather than fall to such outside influences, imagine the awesome power for good Europe could wield if this immense capacity was harnessed toward the common vision for the future: A Europe whole and free as a pillar of international security.
Futures for Europe
Europe has a range of futures before it. Some aspects of these futures it can choose. Some will be determined by forces beyond Europe’s control:
Future 1 – Europe Leads
In this future Europe is united, strong, and free. Foreign influence in European elections is no longer an issue. European security is well protected within NATO and through a robust European defense and diplomatic corps with a supportive and well supplied industrial sector. Europe reaches out across the world to work with cooperative partners and allies to ensure the rule of law and international security are maintained. The people of Europe trust their governments and the institutions above those governments who unite them across a powerful continent.
Future 2 – Europe Follows
In this future Europe never becomes more than it is today, and eventually becomes far less. Outside powers determine Europe’s future, influencing its elections, cutting off military protection, and pitting European countries against each other as authoritarians around the world break the rule of law, launch wars of aggression and expansion, leading to authoritarians within Europe eventually breaking up the continent into competing fiefdoms. The people of Europe are divided, mistrustful of their rulers and each other. Economies shrink, lives are lost lawlessly, and life becomes worse for everyone who remains in this darkness.
Future 3 – Europe Muddles
In this future Europe tries to make the best of difficult circumstances, pushing ahead in some areas, but falling behind in others. It has economic might, but cannot harness it well across the continent. Several countries of the EU counter every attempt at unity and clarity of purpose proposed. Wannabe authoritarian regimes take over more countries within Europe, pushing the Union to an ever-weakening position to irrelevance. The Union pushes on, but cannot find traction, slowly losing power to nationalist sentiments across the continent, and adversaries around the world.
Future 4 – Europe Partners
In this future Europe aligns with like-minded partners around the world to create a community of democracies. Working together this community encourages, supports, and enables other countries to join, becoming democracies themselves. As this community grows its power and ability to attract new democracies grows. From all corners of the world countries move toward democracy, the rule of law, and an international political, military, and diplomatic order based on the founding principles of the United Nations. Europe is a force for good; not just pushing back against authoritarian dictatorship and war but creating the reality of a world whole and free based on its immense power, its partnerships, and its appeal to all of humanity.
The choice
The choice is up to the people of Europe. Shall we fall into the abyss of authoritarian dictate, succumbing under the minor weight of a determined and detrimentally poorly led Russia to our East and belligerent China? Or shall we come together to protect the democracies too many wars of the past have cost us to build? Shall we stand up for the rights and liberties we hold dear for ourselves, those who want to join us, and those around the world who share our values? Shall we come together to overcome malicious influence in our elections and politics, protect the rule of law, defend those who are attacked, and stand up for ourselves and our neighbors? Shall we unite to become the Europe we can be, the Europe we need to be, and the Europe the world needs to defend peace and prosperity?
For the sake of our future and to honor our past, let us make the choice of our present to become what Europe can be. Europe’s time has come.
Jeremy Strozer is a private citizen, strategic planning consultant, global security researcher and advisor, and former U.S. State Department official living in Ireland.
[1] https://www.worldeconomics.com/Indicator-Data/Economic-Size/Country-Share-of-Global-GDP.aspx
