The World Has Shifted. So Must We

The United States is once again an imperial power. Called “Realism” by General Kellogg, and others in the Trump orbit, the rest of us can recognize what the United States of America is doing as naked aggression. From the demands on Denmark for Greenland, Panama for the Canal, Canada for all of its territory, Gaza in Palestine, and Ukraine for its mineral resources, the U.S. under Trump has switched sides from working with the democracies of the world to becoming one of the Axis of Chaos (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea). This does not mean that there are not still many good Americans resisting this transformation internally. What it does mean, though, is that those who believe in democracy and the rule of law must wake up to recognize what is going on, let go of what used to be, and build toward what comes next.

Both domestically and internationally, those who believe in democracy and the rule of law are currently on the back foot. Surprise, alarm, indignation, and shock have led to the Flight, Fight, Freeze, Fawn, or Faint (5F) trauma response. We can see it in the actions of the democrats inside the United States, the leaders of NATO, the European Union, Colombia, El Salvador, Panama, and Ukraine. As each interacts with Trump and his team, they have at least one of the 5F responses. It is time to move beyond these responses and begin to act with others to adapt to the situation which exists and find a way to thrive in the future.

Recognizing what is

Donald Trump views himself as a strong man. He likes others he sees as strong men, such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Benjamin Netanyahu, Kim Jung Un, Victor Orban, etc. He has joined, and talked the electorate of the United States of America into joining, their club. The United States of today is an imperialist country intent on upending what was the world order to carve out spheres of influence. Trump and his team have declared this intent.

From quickly reaching out to Russia, behind Ukraine’s back, to make a “Peace Deal” what Trump has done is provide Russia an economic and political lifeline. By accusing Ukraine of starting the war, and making a separate peace with a declared enemy of democracy and the rule of law, he is sacrificing the victim to get closer to the aggressor. The reason for this is Trump does not care about Ukraine, about European security, or what Russia does in its “near abroad”. What Trump wants is a blank check to operate across the Americas, leaving Europe to splinter while fending for itself against an imperialist Russia.

Trump is working to copy Russia’s playbook domestically and globally. Within the United States’ borders he is sidelining any resistance and eliminating any threat to his regime. He has moved quickly to attack what his team call “The Deep State” by eliminating entire government agencies funded by Congress. This gives him a three-for by removing those experts who would resist his policies on the grounds they are illegal, silencing Congress by removing its Power of The Purse, and going around the courts by ignoring legal rulings and threatening judges with impeachment.

Regionally, Trump is also copying Putin’s playbook by threatening his neighbors and farther afield to create a sphere of influence in the Americas and the Middle East. Perverting the Monroe Doctrine, which declared the America’s off limits to conflicting European Powers in the 19th century, Trump and team are declaring open season on Canada, Panama, Greenland as areas within the United States “backyard” sphere of influence who will be under U.S. control. Going beyond that, he is working to “Own” Gaza, turning it into a construction and development site by removing the two million Palestinians who live in what is left of the area after Israel’s comprehensive destruction. There is a reason Trump has espoused the greatness of President McKinley beyond tariffs. It is because it was under McKinley the United States became an imperial power. Trump wants to recreate that.

We are in a world where the United States is an agent of violent change to borders, lives, supply chains, economic power distribution, and the international legal system. We need to see the United States for what it is now: a regime led by a tin-pot dictator on par with those this dictator admires.

Letting go of what was

Recognizing the United States for what it is today is to let go of what it used to be. It was never perfect, and it is responsible for some horrible acts in the past, yet the United States was a sponsor and original founder of an international system based on the Rule of Law, on democratic institutions, of collective security through NATO, on free trade and international cooperation to solve international problems. We must let go of that notion of the United States. It does not currently exist and may not exist again in that form. This does not mean giving up on those Americans who want such a country to exist again. This does not mean letting go of these ideas and ideals. This does not mean we cannot support those working to create these things anew.

What it means to let go is to get over the shock of what is happening now. Get over the daily deluge of attacks against democracy, NATO, the rule of law, free trade, international institutions, and begin to expect this from The United States, Russia, and others.

What this means is rather than grasping for what was, we need to look forward and start to build what comes next.

Building What’s Next

There are still many in the world who believe in democracy, the rule of law, free trade, international institutions, the rights of people to live their own lives, collective security, and the obligation of those who lead to represent the people, not dictate to them. Those who believe in these things must work together to build systems across the world. Whether that means countries working together or people working together despite their country’s current government, there is work to be done to build a new global system based on respect, dignity, collaboration, collective action, law, representation, sustainability, and caring about the people who make up the system.

None of us know exactly what this world will look like in the end, but we do have a kernel of it in the ideals of the founding of The United States of America and of the European Union. There is a reason so many people immigrated to the United States so much over the past 200 years, and are arriving in the EU, and striving to join the EU now. The concept of different people coming together with a shared ideal of what can be, working to build toward those ideals, and finding a messy democratic way of turning those ideals into imperfect yet resilient realities. Over time evolving those realities to meet the needs of the people more effectively, and through the actions of all together creating something no one country or group could have created alone.

It could be something like a democracy union, with like-minded countries, regions, or people subscribing from across the planet.

Whatever comes next, the key is to begin building it today. We who believe in something other than dictatorship must offer an alternative. We who believe in democracy must offer opportunity. We who believe in the rule of law must offer hope to those who now find themselves behind walls they did not want built.

There is a world beyond this current chaos. It is time to move beyond shock, let go of what’s been lost, and begin building something even better than what we had before. I am not thankful to Putin, Trump and others for the suffering they are inflicting on millions of people around the world. I am, though, hopeful for the future of humanity if we who want a future work together to build one from the ashes of what was.

Europe's Time Has Come

This is Europe's time to rise to its potential, meeting the demands the world has for what Europe has to offer. This rise will require a change of perspective about what Europe is, what is important to the people of Europe, and what role Europe has in the world. Europe is up to this change, but it will not be easy, cheap, or pleasant for the people of the countries of The European Union (EU), its aspirants, or the United Kingdom. Together they have the opportunity and responsibility to help ensure peace and security. Otherwise, the world will slip farther into authoritarian led wars. It is up to the people of Europe which path we shall take.

Trapped between a revanchist fascist Russia, an ever more belligerent China facing economic headwinds, and an unreliable United States, Europe must become what it has every capacity to be: a foreign and security power in-line with its economic strength. To achieve such an outcome, Europe needs to move beyond consensus on critical issues, beyond the varying definitions of undefendable neutrality in some countries, and beyond utter reliance on the United States for security. This means creating a robust and sustainable European contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), social cohesion within European states, a defense industrial base commensurate with Europe’s size and strength, and a foreign policy apparatus able to represent Europe’s interests around the world. No matter the results of the United States election, a Europe which achieves these outcomes will be a potent force for good in the world, reinforcing NATO, strengthening the EU, providing hope and a future for Ukraine, and proving there is a future for the Western Liberal Democratic Order.

Making such changes, and meeting such demands, will be a departure from business as usual for Europe. None-the-less, the world is not usual. The time for quotidian European interactions is past. The threats to Europe are real. The time has come to act beyond the comfort level of any one country to protect the interests of not only Europe, but the world with which it interacts economically, politically, militarily, and diplomatically. Jean Monnet and Margaret Thatcher would recognize the demands of this time, coming together to create a Europe whole, free, and strong enough to protect its interests in the world in league with allies if it has them or alone if it must.

Demand for Europe

As the world commemorates the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine and goes into the third month of the year of elections, in which who runs the United States in the future will be determined, Europe finds itself surrounded by uncertainty. The rise of authoritarian and wannabe authoritarians within the European Union has weakened it internally while such figures have created conflict and uncertainty worldwide.

For more than 70 years Europe and the United States have been the key bulwarks of Western Liberal Democracy. Within Europe, and particularly in the United States, the walls of that bulwark have been undermined by authoritarian regimes and those who wish to create them. From Hungary, Slovakia and potentially Netherlands, Italy, France, and others within the EU, to Turkey as a questionable NATO ally, Europe is currently struggling to traverse the fractured foundation of the rule of law and unity. This as Russia demonstrated its willingness to conduct wars of imperial aggression is a recipe for instability and potential future subjugation by dictators.

The world needs a united Europe, pushing back against aggression, standing for democracy, and defending the rule of law both internally, and globally. This would be best achieved in collaboration with international partners to include the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand among others, no matter what combination of these states will be democratic after this year.

Supply by Europe

Collectively, Europe has the largest economy, potential military, industrial base, and diplomatic representation in the world. At present these resources are diffused across independent states within and outside the EU. Add to the EU the countries of The United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro and you find over 20% of the world’s economy represented. No other country has such a capacity. Compare this to China at around 18%, the United States at 13% and Russia at 3%.[1] Europe is huge.

If these resources and capabilities were harnessed toward implementing a unified strategy no country in the world could stand alone against a unified Europe. This is the reason Russia has worked so hard to undermine the European Union, funding political movements across the Union to weaken its institutions and sap its political will. Rather than fall to such outside influences, imagine the awesome power for good Europe could wield if this immense capacity was harnessed toward the common vision for the future: A Europe whole and free as a pillar of international security.

Futures for Europe

Europe has a range of futures before it. Some aspects of these futures it can choose. Some will be determined by forces beyond Europe’s control:

Future 1 – Europe Leads

In this future Europe is united, strong, and free. Foreign influence in European elections is no longer an issue. European security is well protected within NATO and through a robust European defense and diplomatic corps with a supportive and well supplied industrial sector. Europe reaches out across the world to work with cooperative partners and allies to ensure the rule of law and international security are maintained. The people of Europe trust their governments and the institutions above those governments who unite them across a powerful continent.

Future 2 – Europe Follows

In this future Europe never becomes more than it is today, and eventually becomes far less. Outside powers determine Europe’s future, influencing its elections, cutting off military protection, and pitting European countries against each other as authoritarians around the world break the rule of law, launch wars of aggression and expansion, leading to authoritarians within Europe eventually breaking up the continent into competing fiefdoms. The people of Europe are divided, mistrustful of their rulers and each other. Economies shrink, lives are lost lawlessly, and life becomes worse for everyone who remains in this darkness.

Future 3 – Europe Muddles

In this future Europe tries to make the best of difficult circumstances, pushing ahead in some areas, but falling behind in others. It has economic might, but cannot harness it well across the continent. Several countries of the EU counter every attempt at unity and clarity of purpose proposed. Wannabe authoritarian regimes take over more countries within Europe, pushing the Union to an ever-weakening position to irrelevance. The Union pushes on, but cannot find traction, slowly losing power to nationalist sentiments across the continent, and adversaries around the world.

Future 4 – Europe Partners

In this future Europe aligns with like-minded partners around the world to create a community of democracies. Working together this community encourages, supports, and enables other countries to join, becoming democracies themselves. As this community grows its power and ability to attract new democracies grows. From all corners of the world countries move toward democracy, the rule of law, and an international political, military, and diplomatic order based on the founding principles of the United Nations. Europe is a force for good; not just pushing back against authoritarian dictatorship and war but creating the reality of a world whole and free based on its immense power, its partnerships, and its appeal to all of humanity.

The choice

The choice is up to the people of Europe. Shall we fall into the abyss of authoritarian dictate, succumbing under the minor weight of a determined and detrimentally poorly led Russia to our East and belligerent China? Or shall we come together to protect the democracies too many wars of the past have cost us to build? Shall we stand up for the rights and liberties we hold dear for ourselves, those who want to join us, and those around the world who share our values? Shall we come together to overcome malicious influence in our elections and politics, protect the rule of law, defend those who are attacked, and stand up for ourselves and our neighbors? Shall we unite to become the Europe we can be, the Europe we need to be, and the Europe the world needs to defend peace and prosperity?

For the sake of our future and to honor our past, let us make the choice of our present to become what Europe can be. Europe’s time has come.

Jeremy Strozer is a private citizen, strategic planning consultant, global security researcher and advisor, and former U.S. State Department official living in Ireland.

[1] https://www.worldeconomics.com/Indicator-Data/Economic-Size/Country-Share-of-Global-GDP.aspx

Stand Before the Deluge

The people of Israel are understandably afraid and seeking justice.

The people of Palestine are understandably afraid and seeking justice.

Fear and injustice have led to decades of violence.

What has that solved?

How will more violence solve the same problem?

Who will pay for this violence?

I can only answer the final question here:

CIVILIANS

It’s the innocent, on either side of the border, who pay the highest price for the actions of the armed.

It’s the goal of Hamas to entice Israel to use overwhelming force, murdering countless Palestinian civilians to stoke hatred of Israel. Israel is walking into that same set-up again, building up its forces in preparation for a massive retaliation for this dastardly Hamas attack on civilians.

At what point can any leader stand-up and say “No more!”

What leader is strong enough to say, “they want us to respond with violence, instead we are going to respond with solutions. We are going to work this problem out, giving some along with finding the solution with which we can all live.“

That is leadership.

Simply responding with ever escalating levels of violence only breeds more violence, more fear, more suffering.

The context of this, and all conflicts, breeds the conflict itself.

Don’t keep feeding that context with more justifications for violence.

Break the cycle of violence.

Break the siege on civilians.

Break free from the history in order to write it yourself.

Be the leader your people need you to be.

Stand up and proclaim “Even though we were attacked, we are going to take the high road, we are going to seek peace, and we are not going to perpetuate this costly, unnecessary, and in-humane cycle of violence.”

That is how to be a leader.

Who’s up for it?