The World Has Shifted. So Must We

The United States is once again an imperial power. Called “Realism” by General Kellogg, and others in the Trump orbit, the rest of us can recognize what the United States of America is doing as naked aggression. From the demands on Denmark for Greenland, Panama for the Canal, Canada for all of its territory, Gaza in Palestine, and Ukraine for its mineral resources, the U.S. under Trump has switched sides from working with the democracies of the world to becoming one of the Axis of Chaos (Russia, China, Iran and North Korea). This does not mean that there are not still many good Americans resisting this transformation internally. What it does mean, though, is that those who believe in democracy and the rule of law must wake up to recognize what is going on, let go of what used to be, and build toward what comes next.

Both domestically and internationally, those who believe in democracy and the rule of law are currently on the back foot. Surprise, alarm, indignation, and shock have led to the Flight, Fight, Freeze, Fawn, or Faint (5F) trauma response. We can see it in the actions of the democrats inside the United States, the leaders of NATO, the European Union, Colombia, El Salvador, Panama, and Ukraine. As each interacts with Trump and his team, they have at least one of the 5F responses. It is time to move beyond these responses and begin to act with others to adapt to the situation which exists and find a way to thrive in the future.

Recognizing what is

Donald Trump views himself as a strong man. He likes others he sees as strong men, such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Benjamin Netanyahu, Kim Jung Un, Victor Orban, etc. He has joined, and talked the electorate of the United States of America into joining, their club. The United States of today is an imperialist country intent on upending what was the world order to carve out spheres of influence. Trump and his team have declared this intent.

From quickly reaching out to Russia, behind Ukraine’s back, to make a “Peace Deal” what Trump has done is provide Russia an economic and political lifeline. By accusing Ukraine of starting the war, and making a separate peace with a declared enemy of democracy and the rule of law, he is sacrificing the victim to get closer to the aggressor. The reason for this is Trump does not care about Ukraine, about European security, or what Russia does in its “near abroad”. What Trump wants is a blank check to operate across the Americas, leaving Europe to splinter while fending for itself against an imperialist Russia.

Trump is working to copy Russia’s playbook domestically and globally. Within the United States’ borders he is sidelining any resistance and eliminating any threat to his regime. He has moved quickly to attack what his team call “The Deep State” by eliminating entire government agencies funded by Congress. This gives him a three-for by removing those experts who would resist his policies on the grounds they are illegal, silencing Congress by removing its Power of The Purse, and going around the courts by ignoring legal rulings and threatening judges with impeachment.

Regionally, Trump is also copying Putin’s playbook by threatening his neighbors and farther afield to create a sphere of influence in the Americas and the Middle East. Perverting the Monroe Doctrine, which declared the America’s off limits to conflicting European Powers in the 19th century, Trump and team are declaring open season on Canada, Panama, Greenland as areas within the United States “backyard” sphere of influence who will be under U.S. control. Going beyond that, he is working to “Own” Gaza, turning it into a construction and development site by removing the two million Palestinians who live in what is left of the area after Israel’s comprehensive destruction. There is a reason Trump has espoused the greatness of President McKinley beyond tariffs. It is because it was under McKinley the United States became an imperial power. Trump wants to recreate that.

We are in a world where the United States is an agent of violent change to borders, lives, supply chains, economic power distribution, and the international legal system. We need to see the United States for what it is now: a regime led by a tin-pot dictator on par with those this dictator admires.

Letting go of what was

Recognizing the United States for what it is today is to let go of what it used to be. It was never perfect, and it is responsible for some horrible acts in the past, yet the United States was a sponsor and original founder of an international system based on the Rule of Law, on democratic institutions, of collective security through NATO, on free trade and international cooperation to solve international problems. We must let go of that notion of the United States. It does not currently exist and may not exist again in that form. This does not mean giving up on those Americans who want such a country to exist again. This does not mean letting go of these ideas and ideals. This does not mean we cannot support those working to create these things anew.

What it means to let go is to get over the shock of what is happening now. Get over the daily deluge of attacks against democracy, NATO, the rule of law, free trade, international institutions, and begin to expect this from The United States, Russia, and others.

What this means is rather than grasping for what was, we need to look forward and start to build what comes next.

Building What’s Next

There are still many in the world who believe in democracy, the rule of law, free trade, international institutions, the rights of people to live their own lives, collective security, and the obligation of those who lead to represent the people, not dictate to them. Those who believe in these things must work together to build systems across the world. Whether that means countries working together or people working together despite their country’s current government, there is work to be done to build a new global system based on respect, dignity, collaboration, collective action, law, representation, sustainability, and caring about the people who make up the system.

None of us know exactly what this world will look like in the end, but we do have a kernel of it in the ideals of the founding of The United States of America and of the European Union. There is a reason so many people immigrated to the United States so much over the past 200 years, and are arriving in the EU, and striving to join the EU now. The concept of different people coming together with a shared ideal of what can be, working to build toward those ideals, and finding a messy democratic way of turning those ideals into imperfect yet resilient realities. Over time evolving those realities to meet the needs of the people more effectively, and through the actions of all together creating something no one country or group could have created alone.

It could be something like a democracy union, with like-minded countries, regions, or people subscribing from across the planet.

Whatever comes next, the key is to begin building it today. We who believe in something other than dictatorship must offer an alternative. We who believe in democracy must offer opportunity. We who believe in the rule of law must offer hope to those who now find themselves behind walls they did not want built.

There is a world beyond this current chaos. It is time to move beyond shock, let go of what’s been lost, and begin building something even better than what we had before. I am not thankful to Putin, Trump and others for the suffering they are inflicting on millions of people around the world. I am, though, hopeful for the future of humanity if we who want a future work together to build one from the ashes of what was.

Notice

Crashing into the chair, the disheveled President of The Russian Federation turns toward the speaker-phone centered on the small table before his wobbly body.

“Yes, Mr. President, one missile.” Defense Minister Grachev’s voice calls out from the phone.

“Why would they only launch one missile?” a slowly speaking, half-asleep or drunk President Yeltsin asks out-loud.

Is he expecting an answer?

I don’t know enough to answer that, yet.

I hope General Grachev can.

“It may be a first strike, Mr. President.” Grachev’s voice returns to the room.

Looking over President Yeltsin’s rounded shoulder, I can see the black nuclear-command suitcase, it’s lethal to millions or more contents open on the desk.

I didn’t get to say goodbye to Katerina or the kids this morning.

“What do you recommend, General?” The President asks the Defense Minister.

A commanding silence fills the room.

Could we go to nuclear war now?

Stalin didn’t attack when we developed the bomb.

We made it through the 60’s with Cuba and Turkey without ending the world.

We survived the 80’s with Reagan’s insanity before the ABM, Nuclear Test Ban and START treaties brought him around.

Now that we’re at our weakest, could NATO be attacking us with one missile?

. . .

Why would anyone attack with one missile?

“We need to prepare a second strike right away, Mr. President” General Grachev replies.

A second strike?

If we launch a second strike it will be Armageddon. For one missile?

“We have two minutes, Mr. President” Grachev offers, as if issuing an order.

“Could it be a test, Sir?” I almost shout, not even realizing I was thinking such a thing.

President Yeltsin turns around slowly, holding the desk for support.

Behind me I can feel the others backing away.

I didn’t step forward, but I’m standing alone now.

A test, what kind of test could it be?

A nuclear missile test?

An anti-satellite test?

A test of our defenses?

I’m going to have to give him some kind of explanation.

His bloodshot eyes now staring directly at me, President Yeltsin is awaiting my explanation.

Grachev, on-the-speaker phone, jumps in before I can say anything.

“It could be a test, Mr. President.”

“Yes”, I say, “It could be a test of a rocket, a satellite launch, a weather probe. It could be any of those things, Mr. President.”

“IS THIS A TEST?” he demands.

“We don’t know, Sir.” I retort without thinking.

I don’t know.

“It does not match any of our launch scenarios” Grachev chimes in from the phone “But, that does not mean it’s not an attack we have not yet considered.”

May it not be an attack.

May it be a test.

How could we know if it’s a test or an attack?

Banishov, from the Defense Ministry chimes in “If it were a test, they would have told us beforehand. Our Early Warning Radar Operators had no forewarning of a test.”

President Yeltsin turns to him, but ask the room in general “No one told us they were going to test?”

“One minute-thirty seconds, Mr. President” Grachev announces.

“Tell me, anyone, were we told someone would launch a rocket?” Yeltsin demands.

Would anyone here announce they received an advisory, now?

In the face of nuclear annihilation, would anyone be brave enough to say they received notice, but didn’t tell anyone else?

Would I admit my mistake?

Some shuffling is taking place between Foreign Minister Kozyrev and some of his deputies. One of them runs out of the room.

President Yeltsin turns torward Kozyrev, “Do you have something you wish to share?”

Please have something.

Please tell us you received notice of a test.

“I’ve asked my deputies to look into all of the notices we’ve received” Kozyrev responds.

“One minute, Mr. President” Grachev chimes in. “We need to prepare the Second Strike option, NOW, Mr. President.”

President Yeltsin, his tired eyes darting back to the phone faster than his shaky head can turn, almost topples in his chair.

“Yes, yes, be ready with a strike, but do not issue any orders yet. The last thing we need right now is for more confusion.”

“No one answered my question, did we receive notice of a test?” President Yeltsin demands.

“We’re looking into it” Kozyrev replies.

“Anyone else?” President Yeltsin turns to Victor Chernomyrdin, the Head of the Government, who is conferring with Kozyrev and his deputies.

They are debating something, which I cannot hear.

Chernomyrdin then turns to the President, “There may be something, we are checking.”

Let there be something, an overlooked notice, a news report, something.

A young man, I’m not sure from what ministry, rushes in while announcing “Norwegian Scientists gave notice of a rocket launch to study the atmosphere. This could be the . . .

“Thirty Seconds, Mr. President” Grachev jumps in.

. . . missile.” The young man finishes.

A research rocket!

Please let it be a research rocket!

“This could be a ploy, Mr. President” Grachev’s voice comes across the speakerphone.

“It could also be true, Mr. President.” Kozyrev counters.

“What do you think Victor?” the President asks Chernomyrdin.

“A one-missle strike makes no sense, and there is evidence this is a science rocket. There is no evidence it is an attack, Mr. President.” Chernomyrdin says.

“Stand-Down Pavel, No Second Strike.” President Yeltsin speaks clearly into the phone.

“Yes, Mr. President” Grachev’s heavy voice slowly replies, a little forlorn.

WE’RE NOT GOING TO END THE WORLD!

MAY THE AMERICANS NOT BE ATTACKING!

Just then, the deputy to Kozyrev returns flustered, saying something to his boss.

Chernomyrdin turns to Kozyrev “What is it Andrei?”

“We did received notice of a rocket launch by Norwegian and American scientists today.”

IT’S NOT AN ATTACK!

The President chose correctly!

President Yeltsin turns to Chernomyrdin, who gives him a nod, before looking back at the phone on which Grachev’s line is currently silent.

“Pavel, it looks legitimate.” The President announces.

“Then why wasn’t the Defense Ministry notified?” Grachev demands.

Yeltsin looks at Chernomyrdin, who turns to Kozyrev, who then directs his visage at one of his deputy’s.

Even when it comes to the possible end of the world, shit always rolls down hill.

On January 25, 1994 the world came the closest it has ever been to nuclear annihilation. The Cold War was over. There was hope and promise across much of the world about the triumph of Western Liberalism and democracy. Yet, when Norwegian and American scientists launched a Black Brant XII sounding rocket from the Arctic Circle island of Andoya to study the aurora Borealis, it almost caused the end of humanity and most life on our planet. The scientists had issued warnings to 30 countries around the Arctic Circle, including Russia. Unfortunately, with all of the confusion of the day, the Russian early warning radar operators were not notified. They alerted Moscow of an incoming first-strike, forcing someone to wake and offer President Yeltsin his black nuclear-command suitcase. Yeltsin hurriedly phoned his Defense Minister and huddled with others to decide what action to take. This was the first time either a Soviet or Russian leader had used the nuclear briefcase in response to an actual alert. Yeltsin decided it could not be a first strike and did not retaliate.

This decision turned out to be the correct one, although Yeltsin did not know that at the time. It wasn’t revealed until later that the Russians had been notified, but the information had not been shared with the Defense Ministry.

Nuclear weapons have been around since 1945, with many close calls of their use being narrowly avoided at the last minute. Somehow, humanity has, so far, not destroyed itself with these potentially all-life-ending weapons. We’ve become comfortable with the (As Dan Carlin offers in metaphor: Growing up with a Gun to our heads) of these weapons ready to be used at any time because it’s an abstract idea very few humans in history have witnessed. Nuclear weapons are very real, their stockpiles are increasing, and threats of their use have become far more commonplace in the past five years.

I’ve walked the nuclear test-sites in the Nevada desert and can vouch for the destructive power of small versions of these weapons.

We are simply measuring time until their next use, as they will be used again. What misunderstanding, mistake, or mis-deed will cause that use. The bigger question is: What will become of life on the planet once we’ve broken that taboo?

Carrier Commando

Putrid darkness surrounds me.

Where is the exit?

How long until we’re out?

Rather than dwelling on these questions, I move on.

Nao, pushing forth from behind me, does not seem to be phased by the stench of human excrement combined with restaurant waste and who knows what else in the blackness of this Saigon Sewer.

How is he not sick too?

My stomach wretches as I push forward.

This ends soon.

Keep pushing through.

The weight of more than 25kg of explosives on my back helps keep my stomach in check.

Crawling my way through the blackened liquid in the dark on this humid May night, I can make out a change in the shade of darkness ahead.

Pausing for a moment to let my eyes adjust, I feel Nao push my foot from behind.

Maybe that’s it!

He pushes again.

I start toward to deep gray circle ahead.

Yes, an end to the sewer!

We will be able to breath again!

Turning my head around, I whisper “I see the exit” just loud enough for Nao to hear me.

He taps my foot twice as I turn again to keep going forward.

Slipping down the end of the sewer pipe, into Saigon Harbor, my eyes need time to adjust.

Nao slips down behind me, the heavy pack on his back brushing me as he quietly half-submerges his body in the harbor waters.

Just meters ahead I can see our target, the aircraft carrier the Americans audaciously docked here to deliver aircraft to the puppet regime.

This harbor air smells and tastes so good!

Without acknowledging the change in air intake, Nao puts on his snorkel just before diving under the water toward the carrier.

Pulling my snorkel out of my pack, I put it on just in time to follow him by just a meter.

This water feels so good as compared to whatever was in that sewer.

Oily, filled with debris and algae, this water surrounds me with a fresh clean feeling of liberation.

Near the aft of the ship, Nao dives deeper.

I take a deep breadth before following him down.

No sense being seen this close to getting the job done.

He swims another fifteen meters alongside the curving hull of the ship, staying below the water line.

I follow him, making sure not to get too close while not losing him in the wet dark shadow of this massive metal monster.

Nao stops swimming, rising to surface under the bilge outlet flow.

I rise next to him, pointing to the hole out of which the bilge is being pumped.

We should place a bomb there.

He nods his head in silence, assenting to my idea.

Aligning my body with the curve of the hull, I put out my arms so Nao can mount my shoulders.

He deftly ascends the side of the ship, using me as a base from which to leverage his body against its hull, rising arm over arm until he’s in-line with the bilge outlet.

Once next to it, he places three American made plastic explosive charges securely against the metal skin of the ship in a triangle formation.

That should make a pretty big hole.

Connecting wires to each explosive, he pulls the lines down as he descends his body toward the water.

When Nao is back in the water, I take the other three explosives out of my pack.

He turns to look at me, at the explosives, then at the hull of the ship.

When he turns back I see a smile on his face.

Handing him the explosives, he turns again toward the ship.

He places them in a second triangle, just above the water-line, directly below the first set.

While he’s placing them, I get the wires and timer out of my pack.

He turns toward me again, pulling the lines from my hands without a word.

I smile.

This will make a huge hole! We’re going to sink this beast!

Nao connects the wires from both triangles of explosives to the timer, before diving under the water.

What’s he doing down there?

He comes back up, holding a handful of slimy mud from the bottom of the harbor.

Packing it with his hands, he then places it on the back of the timer, before attaching the timer to the hull of the ship.

Ingenious!

An empty pack on my back, a settled stomach, and a mission set-up, I turn to go back under the water and return to the putrid stench of the sewer.

Nao puts his hand on my shoulder, pushing to turn me back around again.

What did I miss?

As I turn toward him, I see him pointing to the timer, it’s not set.

Oh!

I look him in the eyes, smile, and move toward the timer.

Of course, what would the point of any of this be if we did not set the timer?

Placing both hands on the device, I turn the electrostatic nob halfway, which should give us ten minutes to get back into the sewer, and far enough way to escape the blast and any search party sent to find us.

Nao’s hand pulls on my shoulder again.

I turn to see him already heading back under the water toward the sewer.

I’m not staying here!

Diving silently into the water, I follow Nao to the sewer entrance.

May this drive the Americans to make a different choice than the French.

Get out!

On the night of May 2, 1964 two members of the National Liberation Front (NLF, aslo known as Viet Cong by Americans stationed in Vietnam) crawled out of a sewer in Saigon harbor near the United States Naval Ship (USNS) Card, an escort carrier from World War II which had been used for three years to transport aircraft and trained crews to South Vietnam. The NLF fighters planted American made explosives on the USNS Card before slipping back into the sewer from which they had entered the harbor. A few minutes later the explosives ripped a giant hole in the hull of the carrier, sending it to the bottom of Saigon harbor. This attack disabled the ship for less than 20 days, at which point it was repaired enough to be sent to facilities in the Philippines and Japan where it was rebuilt. The attack was not reported widely in the United States, but was a propaganda coup for the NLF, showing they could strike at a massive piece of American military equipment. This kind of attack was replicated in 2000 when the U.S.S. Cole was attacked in Aden harbor with explosives by Al Qaeda. At least in that attack, the explosives themselves were not of American origin. In war, bribery and corruption of your own, or allied personnel, may leave you vulnerable to your own weapons. Especially, when you’re not supposed to be there in the first place.