3 Ways to Make Money Off The Coming Years of Market Volatility

To begin: I am not telling you what to do. I am not responsible for any action you take. I am telling you what I do. If you choose to do the same thing, that is your decision. I am not responsible for your decisions.

Economic cycles ensure a rise and fall in the overall stock market. Timing these is pointless. You will have almost 0% chance of catching the bottom or calling the top of the market. Yet, if you set yourself price-points at which to take action, you can achieve powerful returns without too much stress. Buying the market when it is on sale, then selling it when it’s above where it belongs, is profitable.

A simple set of strategies exists to wait for the market to hit a price-point at which you are comfortable to own a piece of its growth, and to sell a piece of its future loss. You don’t have to do both things. Doing both can try your patience beyond any comfort level. Doing one alone (buying for the rise) can be thrilling. Doing both can accentuate returns.

I’ll walk you through different options from the easiest to the most stressful. You are invited to ignore any of these or find the option which works best for you. Again, I’m not telling you what to do, I’m telling you what I have done, and will be doing in the future because it works for me.

Option 1 – Easy on the Heart

This is the simplest way to profit off market volatility: Regularly buy a Total Stock Market Fund (e.g. VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market Index). If you set-up an automatic purchase of this fund, say on a monthly basis, you’ll own a piece of the total stock market in the United States. In this way, when the price of the market goes up, you just keep buying it. When the price of the market goes down, you just keep buying it (and get more of it!).

                Here is a set of scenarios to draw this out for you:

1.      You invest $1,000 a month in VTI. It is currently trading at $299, so that gives you around 3.3 shares this month. The price stays the same. You keep buying every month. At the end of the year you have 40+ shares on your $12,000.

2.      You invest $1000 a month in VTI. It is currently trading at $299, so that gives you around 3.3 shares this month. Next month the price drops by 30% to $209, which allows you to buy 4.78 shares. (Notice, you would get more shares because the price of the share is on sale. Yeah!!!) The price stays down for the remainder of the year. You are able to own 55 shares by the end of 1 year. (Buying something on sale is great for long-term ownership and you did nothing different to earn these extra shares.)

3.      You invest $1000 a month in VTI. It is currently trading at $299, so that gives you around 3.3 shares this month. Next month the price skyrockets 30% to $388, which allows you to buy around 2.5 shares. Since the price went up, the fund is selling at a premium, so you can buy fewer shares with the same regular investment.

Over the course of several years you will see the market fall and rise. You simply keep buying, which allows you to buy the discounts. This takes no thought on your part, creates no stress, and is the simplest way to build long-term wealth. Keep this up for as long as you invest, and live comfortably when you are done. Simple and stress free.

Option 2 – Buy the discounts, hold the falls.

This is an option for someone who can take a little volatility, but would prefer not to take too much risk. In this case one holds a money market fund, cash, or a simple bond fund (e.g. VND Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund) while you wait for a discount opportunity to arise. You watch UPRO (Pro Shares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF) regularly, waiting for it to go on sale. It will go on sale.

Note: UPRO is an exchange traded fund which returns 3X the market growth for a day. Every day the fund goes up, or down, by 3X of the market. As the market is a constantly rising machine over the long-term (think 20 year periods) this fund will always come out up, by 3X from the market as a whole.

The price of UPRO has ranged, in my investing career, from $1 to its current $96. During an economic downturn it falls below $30, and occasionally has gone all the way back down to $14.

In this option, simply mark a point at which you are comfortable, probably between $10 - $30 at which you would like to buy this fund. Then, you sit. You sit. And, you sit. In time the fund will rise, going above $70. In the range between $70 - $85 you start to sell off your holdings, moving your money back into a more conservative investment.

Rinse, and repeat over the course of 30 years and you’ll find you’ve earned a lot on market growth.

Option 3 – Buy the discounts, short the peaks.

This option is for those with hearts of steel, nerves which don’t feel, and the patience of a bear in hibernation. I do not recommend this option to anyone. I have done this once and it almost caused me a heart attack. This is what I did:

In 2017 I knew the United States would struggle economically from a decision by its then President. I was not sure what specifically that decision would be, but knowing his way of making decisions, I knew he'd make some bad ones. At the time I speculated (note: this is not an investment) approx. 30% of my net worth in the SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500  

In 2020 this speculation paid off. I then switched it to UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P500 which also paid off. I sold this back in 2022.

The idea here is that you short the market when it is selling at a premium before buying the market back when its selling at a discount. To do this, one must set a strategy ahead of time and stick with that strategy. There will be times when the nerves fray, the patience wanes, and anxiety rises to a fever pitch. Stick with the strategy and you’ll make it through. Second guess yourself, and you’ll lose everything.

A scenario which works:

When UPRO is trading above $85 begin buying SPXU. Convert 10% of your portfolio of UPRO to SPXU every week until you’re 100% in SPXU. This should take 10 weeks. Then, SIT! SIT! Go on holiday. Go away. The market will go down by a lot eventually. It always does. It will take longer than you expect. It will be uncomfortable. Don’t look at your losses as you short a market you know will eventually fall. It will eventually fall.

During the fall, UPRO will hit $30, and may begin going below that. Begin converting back into UPRO at 25% a week. This will take 4 weeks. Now, SIT! SIT! Wait for UPRO to go back above $85 again.

Rinse and Repeat. Each time you start over, take 50% of the new funds off the table, putting them back into something like VND. This is your DON’T TOUCH THIS POT, which as the name implies, is your long-term nest-egg. Never put this money into play again, as it is your winnings. This will be your dividend income pot for the future.

This option shorted the market when the price was high and bought when the price was discounted. There was no attempt to time the high or low, but simply take advantage of the sale which was being offered.

Learning

We can run away from facts for a time, but facts have a way of catching up eventually. Markets rise and fall. If you know that, and know yourself, then you can use who you are to benefit from those fluctuations. Know your level of risk tolerance and patience. At the right level for you there are options on how you can ride the market up, own a lot of it, and ride it down again, buying more of it when it goes on sale.

Europe's Time Has Come

This is Europe's time to rise to its potential, meeting the demands the world has for what Europe has to offer. This rise will require a change of perspective about what Europe is, what is important to the people of Europe, and what role Europe has in the world. Europe is up to this change, but it will not be easy, cheap, or pleasant for the people of the countries of The European Union (EU), its aspirants, or the United Kingdom. Together they have the opportunity and responsibility to help ensure peace and security. Otherwise, the world will slip farther into authoritarian led wars. It is up to the people of Europe which path we shall take.

Trapped between a revanchist fascist Russia, an ever more belligerent China facing economic headwinds, and an unreliable United States, Europe must become what it has every capacity to be: a foreign and security power in-line with its economic strength. To achieve such an outcome, Europe needs to move beyond consensus on critical issues, beyond the varying definitions of undefendable neutrality in some countries, and beyond utter reliance on the United States for security. This means creating a robust and sustainable European contribution to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), social cohesion within European states, a defense industrial base commensurate with Europe’s size and strength, and a foreign policy apparatus able to represent Europe’s interests around the world. No matter the results of the United States election, a Europe which achieves these outcomes will be a potent force for good in the world, reinforcing NATO, strengthening the EU, providing hope and a future for Ukraine, and proving there is a future for the Western Liberal Democratic Order.

Making such changes, and meeting such demands, will be a departure from business as usual for Europe. None-the-less, the world is not usual. The time for quotidian European interactions is past. The threats to Europe are real. The time has come to act beyond the comfort level of any one country to protect the interests of not only Europe, but the world with which it interacts economically, politically, militarily, and diplomatically. Jean Monnet and Margaret Thatcher would recognize the demands of this time, coming together to create a Europe whole, free, and strong enough to protect its interests in the world in league with allies if it has them or alone if it must.

Demand for Europe

As the world commemorates the second anniversary of Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine and goes into the third month of the year of elections, in which who runs the United States in the future will be determined, Europe finds itself surrounded by uncertainty. The rise of authoritarian and wannabe authoritarians within the European Union has weakened it internally while such figures have created conflict and uncertainty worldwide.

For more than 70 years Europe and the United States have been the key bulwarks of Western Liberal Democracy. Within Europe, and particularly in the United States, the walls of that bulwark have been undermined by authoritarian regimes and those who wish to create them. From Hungary, Slovakia and potentially Netherlands, Italy, France, and others within the EU, to Turkey as a questionable NATO ally, Europe is currently struggling to traverse the fractured foundation of the rule of law and unity. This as Russia demonstrated its willingness to conduct wars of imperial aggression is a recipe for instability and potential future subjugation by dictators.

The world needs a united Europe, pushing back against aggression, standing for democracy, and defending the rule of law both internally, and globally. This would be best achieved in collaboration with international partners to include the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand among others, no matter what combination of these states will be democratic after this year.

Supply by Europe

Collectively, Europe has the largest economy, potential military, industrial base, and diplomatic representation in the world. At present these resources are diffused across independent states within and outside the EU. Add to the EU the countries of The United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, Georgia, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, and Montenegro and you find over 20% of the world’s economy represented. No other country has such a capacity. Compare this to China at around 18%, the United States at 13% and Russia at 3%.[1] Europe is huge.

If these resources and capabilities were harnessed toward implementing a unified strategy no country in the world could stand alone against a unified Europe. This is the reason Russia has worked so hard to undermine the European Union, funding political movements across the Union to weaken its institutions and sap its political will. Rather than fall to such outside influences, imagine the awesome power for good Europe could wield if this immense capacity was harnessed toward the common vision for the future: A Europe whole and free as a pillar of international security.

Futures for Europe

Europe has a range of futures before it. Some aspects of these futures it can choose. Some will be determined by forces beyond Europe’s control:

Future 1 – Europe Leads

In this future Europe is united, strong, and free. Foreign influence in European elections is no longer an issue. European security is well protected within NATO and through a robust European defense and diplomatic corps with a supportive and well supplied industrial sector. Europe reaches out across the world to work with cooperative partners and allies to ensure the rule of law and international security are maintained. The people of Europe trust their governments and the institutions above those governments who unite them across a powerful continent.

Future 2 – Europe Follows

In this future Europe never becomes more than it is today, and eventually becomes far less. Outside powers determine Europe’s future, influencing its elections, cutting off military protection, and pitting European countries against each other as authoritarians around the world break the rule of law, launch wars of aggression and expansion, leading to authoritarians within Europe eventually breaking up the continent into competing fiefdoms. The people of Europe are divided, mistrustful of their rulers and each other. Economies shrink, lives are lost lawlessly, and life becomes worse for everyone who remains in this darkness.

Future 3 – Europe Muddles

In this future Europe tries to make the best of difficult circumstances, pushing ahead in some areas, but falling behind in others. It has economic might, but cannot harness it well across the continent. Several countries of the EU counter every attempt at unity and clarity of purpose proposed. Wannabe authoritarian regimes take over more countries within Europe, pushing the Union to an ever-weakening position to irrelevance. The Union pushes on, but cannot find traction, slowly losing power to nationalist sentiments across the continent, and adversaries around the world.

Future 4 – Europe Partners

In this future Europe aligns with like-minded partners around the world to create a community of democracies. Working together this community encourages, supports, and enables other countries to join, becoming democracies themselves. As this community grows its power and ability to attract new democracies grows. From all corners of the world countries move toward democracy, the rule of law, and an international political, military, and diplomatic order based on the founding principles of the United Nations. Europe is a force for good; not just pushing back against authoritarian dictatorship and war but creating the reality of a world whole and free based on its immense power, its partnerships, and its appeal to all of humanity.

The choice

The choice is up to the people of Europe. Shall we fall into the abyss of authoritarian dictate, succumbing under the minor weight of a determined and detrimentally poorly led Russia to our East and belligerent China? Or shall we come together to protect the democracies too many wars of the past have cost us to build? Shall we stand up for the rights and liberties we hold dear for ourselves, those who want to join us, and those around the world who share our values? Shall we come together to overcome malicious influence in our elections and politics, protect the rule of law, defend those who are attacked, and stand up for ourselves and our neighbors? Shall we unite to become the Europe we can be, the Europe we need to be, and the Europe the world needs to defend peace and prosperity?

For the sake of our future and to honor our past, let us make the choice of our present to become what Europe can be. Europe’s time has come.

Jeremy Strozer is a private citizen, strategic planning consultant, global security researcher and advisor, and former U.S. State Department official living in Ireland.

[1] https://www.worldeconomics.com/Indicator-Data/Economic-Size/Country-Share-of-Global-GDP.aspx

Maternity

Maternity

Wrinkled tiny fingers from a fist the size of an acorn grip almost all the way around my thumb.

Eyes of deep blue inquiry stare up at me from within the incubator.

Welcome to a broken world little one.

Glancing over at the incubator’s display, I see the power levels right where they need to be, the temperature a little low, and humidity high.

As my right hand moves to adjust these levels the ground violently throws my feet into the air a fraction of a second before the sound of shattering glass breaks the rhythmic pulse of the heart monitors.

Pure black darkness envelopes everything as my body crashes down on the hard linoleum floor of the pre-natal intensive care unit.

What just happened?

The sounds of shattering glass are replaced by screams from every direction. Women’s screams. Children’s screams. Men’s screams.

Everyone is screaming!

I feel around my prone body gingerly, hoping to touch something for orientation.

My left front is on the ground, so my back must be up.

As my right hand sweeps the hard surface before me, I remember my left hand had just been connected to the premature baby in the incubator, Julia.

Where is this dear child now?

How can I make sure she’s safe?

I stop sweeping with my right hand so the left can search for Julia.

Where are you sweetheart?

Where could she be?

I can’t see a thing in this pitch blackness.

“SOMEONE, BRING A LIGHT!” I yell, hoping to be heard above the all the other screaming.

I know Lara was just out in the hall, maybe she’ll hear me.

Raising myself to my knees, I’m able to sweep with both hands. As they glide across the cold floor I touch thrown instruments, tissue boxes, and other detritus, until I contact a downed cart.

There were three in the room, only one was occupied.

Please be Julia’s!

Rubbing up the leg of the cart, I can feel the cold metal of its solid construction give way to the plastic, which encases the not-yet-ready for the real world baby.

Please be in this one Julia!

The left access hole had been opened allowing me to reach in to interact with her, so I feel for the hole.

As my hand brushes for the access hole, I come across a large crack in the casing, scratching myself on its jagged edge.

This can’t be good, this poor child. If it’s cracked, she could have been thrown out.

Just then more screaming in the hall interrupts my thoughts of the child.

I don’t want to think about what’s happening out there.

All that matters right now is what’s in here!

Luckily, the crack is small, coming to an end quickly as my hand continues across the surface in search of the access hole.

I find it, tenderly reaching in to feel for Julia.

As I reach further into the tiny, enclosed chamber, I come across soft tissue.

Could this be you sweetheart?

Please be you!

Before I have the chance to see, a bright light shines in from the right of me.

“We have to get out of here!” a stern female voice declares.

Who is that?

Where is Lara?

Is this the child?

Blinded by the light, I keep feeling for the child.

Is there movement?

Is there warmth?

THERE IS!

WARMTH!

IT IS JULIA!

As my eyes adjust, I see before me in a beam of light, the premature baby, encased in the upright cart, staring up at me with those deep blue eyes of her own.

“You are a lucky dear!” I softly murmur.

“What was that?” the person holding the light asks.

“I found the child, help me bring the incubator out of this room” I demand.

I can’t see the holder of the light.

Who is holding the light?

The beam begins changing angles from up to down, left to right, as its holder makes her way toward me.

As she approaches, I can see her face.

Do I know you?

She is close enough now the light beam illuminates our shared space with Julia.

I see her face, and she mine.

Why are you looking at me like you see a ghost?

Could this be Lara?

The woman’s face, shoulders, and torso are covered in blood. Her neck seems off somehow.

She looks down at the child, “Let’s get her out of here.” She offers.

“Yes, please lead the way” I respond, still touching the child’s warm flesh.

I look down one more time, Julia’s eyes are shifting back and forth between me and the woman with the light.

You’ll be ok dear.

We just need to follow the woman with the light.

“We will all be alright.” The woman says sternly.

“Yes, we will all be alright.” I respond, while pushing the incubator cart forward toward the light.

On Wednesday, March 9, 2022 the Russian Air Force bombed Maternity Hospital #3 in Mariupol, Ukraine during an agreed cease-fire meant to allow civilians safe-passage out of the besieged city. The three buildings of the complex: a Maternity Hospital, a Children’s Hospital, and a Children’s Therapy building, were all destroyed in the blast, killing four, injuring 16 and leading to one still-birth. A massive bomb had blasted out all of the windows, shattered walls, and left a crater in the central courtyard deeper than two full-grown men. Russia claimed the hospital was a legitimate target because they thought military forces were using it as a shelter. An investigation conducted by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)in April of that year concluded the hospital was clearly identifiable and operational, and that the Russian forces therefore perpetrated a war crime. The investigative team’s statement declared:

"The Mission therefore concludes that the hospital was destroyed by a Russian attack. Based upon Russian    explanations, the attack must have been deliberate. No effective warning was given and no time-limit set. This attack therefore constitutes a clear violation of IHL (International Humanitarian Law) and those responsible for it have committed a war crime."

OSCE, April 13, 2022, pp. 46–47.  

During the Syrian Civil War, Russian and Syrian government forces used the same tactic in their campaign against anti-government forces, focusing on the destruction of hospitals, medical facilities, and other civilian infrastructure in areas not under the control of the Syrian government. Human Rights Watch,October 15, 2020; Aljazeera, June 7, 2022; The New York Times, October 13, 2019; Time, March 3, 2021.