Crashing into the chair, the disheveled President of The Russian Federation turns toward the speaker-phone centered on the small table before his wobbly body.
“Yes, Mr. President, one missile.” Defense Minister Grachev’s voice calls out from the phone.
“Why would they only launch one missile?” a slowly speaking, half-asleep or drunk President Yeltsin asks out-loud.
Is he expecting an answer?
I don’t know enough to answer that, yet.
I hope General Grachev can.
“It may be a first strike, Mr. President.” Grachev’s voice returns to the room.
Looking over President Yeltsin’s rounded shoulder, I can see the black nuclear-command suitcase, it’s lethal to millions or more contents open on the desk.
I didn’t get to say goodbye to Katerina or the kids this morning.
“What do you recommend, General?” The President asks the Defense Minister.
A commanding silence fills the room.
Could we go to nuclear war now?
Stalin didn’t attack when we developed the bomb.
We made it through the 60’s with Cuba and Turkey without ending the world.
We survived the 80’s with Reagan’s insanity before the ABM, Nuclear Test Ban and START treaties brought him around.
Now that we’re at our weakest, could NATO be attacking us with one missile?
. . .
Why would anyone attack with one missile?
“We need to prepare a second strike right away, Mr. President” General Grachev replies.
A second strike?
If we launch a second strike it will be Armageddon. For one missile?
“We have two minutes, Mr. President” Grachev offers, as if issuing an order.
“Could it be a test, Sir?” I almost shout, not even realizing I was thinking such a thing.
President Yeltsin turns around slowly, holding the desk for support.
Behind me I can feel the others backing away.
I didn’t step forward, but I’m standing alone now.
A test, what kind of test could it be?
A nuclear missile test?
An anti-satellite test?
A test of our defenses?
I’m going to have to give him some kind of explanation.
His bloodshot eyes now staring directly at me, President Yeltsin is awaiting my explanation.
Grachev, on-the-speaker phone, jumps in before I can say anything.
“It could be a test, Mr. President.”
“Yes”, I say, “It could be a test of a rocket, a satellite launch, a weather probe. It could be any of those things, Mr. President.”
“IS THIS A TEST?” he demands.
“We don’t know, Sir.” I retort without thinking.
I don’t know.
“It does not match any of our launch scenarios” Grachev chimes in from the phone “But, that does not mean it’s not an attack we have not yet considered.”
May it not be an attack.
May it be a test.
How could we know if it’s a test or an attack?
Banishov, from the Defense Ministry chimes in “If it were a test, they would have told us beforehand. Our Early Warning Radar Operators had no forewarning of a test.”
President Yeltsin turns to him, but ask the room in general “No one told us they were going to test?”
“One minute-thirty seconds, Mr. President” Grachev announces.
“Tell me, anyone, were we told someone would launch a rocket?” Yeltsin demands.
Would anyone here announce they received an advisory, now?
In the face of nuclear annihilation, would anyone be brave enough to say they received notice, but didn’t tell anyone else?
Would I admit my mistake?
Some shuffling is taking place between Foreign Minister Kozyrev and some of his deputies. One of them runs out of the room.
President Yeltsin turns torward Kozyrev, “Do you have something you wish to share?”
Please have something.
Please tell us you received notice of a test.
“I’ve asked my deputies to look into all of the notices we’ve received” Kozyrev responds.
“One minute, Mr. President” Grachev chimes in. “We need to prepare the Second Strike option, NOW, Mr. President.”
President Yeltsin, his tired eyes darting back to the phone faster than his shaky head can turn, almost topples in his chair.
“Yes, yes, be ready with a strike, but do not issue any orders yet. The last thing we need right now is for more confusion.”
“No one answered my question, did we receive notice of a test?” President Yeltsin demands.
“We’re looking into it” Kozyrev replies.
“Anyone else?” President Yeltsin turns to Victor Chernomyrdin, the Head of the Government, who is conferring with Kozyrev and his deputies.
They are debating something, which I cannot hear.
Chernomyrdin then turns to the President, “There may be something, we are checking.”
Let there be something, an overlooked notice, a news report, something.
A young man, I’m not sure from what ministry, rushes in while announcing “Norwegian Scientists gave notice of a rocket launch to study the atmosphere. This could be the . . .
“Thirty Seconds, Mr. President” Grachev jumps in.
. . . missile.” The young man finishes.
A research rocket!
Please let it be a research rocket!
“This could be a ploy, Mr. President” Grachev’s voice comes across the speakerphone.
“It could also be true, Mr. President.” Kozyrev counters.
“What do you think Victor?” the President asks Chernomyrdin.
“A one-missle strike makes no sense, and there is evidence this is a science rocket. There is no evidence it is an attack, Mr. President.” Chernomyrdin says.
“Stand-Down Pavel, No Second Strike.” President Yeltsin speaks clearly into the phone.
“Yes, Mr. President” Grachev’s heavy voice slowly replies, a little forlorn.
WE’RE NOT GOING TO END THE WORLD!
MAY THE AMERICANS NOT BE ATTACKING!
Just then, the deputy to Kozyrev returns flustered, saying something to his boss.
Chernomyrdin turns to Kozyrev “What is it Andrei?”
“We did received notice of a rocket launch by Norwegian and American scientists today.”
IT’S NOT AN ATTACK!
The President chose correctly!
President Yeltsin turns to Chernomyrdin, who gives him a nod, before looking back at the phone on which Grachev’s line is currently silent.
“Pavel, it looks legitimate.” The President announces.
“Then why wasn’t the Defense Ministry notified?” Grachev demands.
Yeltsin looks at Chernomyrdin, who turns to Kozyrev, who then directs his visage at one of his deputy’s.
Even when it comes to the possible end of the world, shit always rolls down hill.
On January 25, 1994 the world came the closest it has ever been to nuclear annihilation. The Cold War was over. There was hope and promise across much of the world about the triumph of Western Liberalism and democracy. Yet, when Norwegian and American scientists launched a Black Brant XII sounding rocket from the Arctic Circle island of Andoya to study the aurora Borealis, it almost caused the end of humanity and most life on our planet. The scientists had issued warnings to 30 countries around the Arctic Circle, including Russia. Unfortunately, with all of the confusion of the day, the Russian early warning radar operators were not notified. They alerted Moscow of an incoming first-strike, forcing someone to wake and offer President Yeltsin his black nuclear-command suitcase. Yeltsin hurriedly phoned his Defense Minister and huddled with others to decide what action to take. This was the first time either a Soviet or Russian leader had used the nuclear briefcase in response to an actual alert. Yeltsin decided it could not be a first strike and did not retaliate.
This decision turned out to be the correct one, although Yeltsin did not know that at the time. It wasn’t revealed until later that the Russians had been notified, but the information had not been shared with the Defense Ministry.
Nuclear weapons have been around since 1945, with many close calls of their use being narrowly avoided at the last minute. Somehow, humanity has, so far, not destroyed itself with these potentially all-life-ending weapons. We’ve become comfortable with the (As Dan Carlin offers in metaphor: Growing up with a Gun to our heads) of these weapons ready to be used at any time because it’s an abstract idea very few humans in history have witnessed. Nuclear weapons are very real, their stockpiles are increasing, and threats of their use have become far more commonplace in the past five years.
I’ve walked the nuclear test-sites in the Nevada desert and can vouch for the destructive power of small versions of these weapons.
We are simply measuring time until their next use, as they will be used again. What misunderstanding, mistake, or mis-deed will cause that use. The bigger question is: What will become of life on the planet once we’ve broken that taboo?
